imc indymedia

Los Angeles Indymedia : Activist News

white themeblack themered themetheme help
About Us Contact Us Calendar Publish RSS
Features
latest news
best of news
syndication
commentary


KILLRADIO

VozMob

ABCF LA

A-Infos Radio

Indymedia On Air

Dope-X-Resistance-LA List

LAAMN List




IMC Network:

Original Cities

www.indymedia.org africa: ambazonia canarias estrecho / madiaq kenya nigeria south africa canada: hamilton london, ontario maritimes montreal ontario ottawa quebec thunder bay vancouver victoria windsor winnipeg east asia: burma jakarta japan korea manila qc europe: abruzzo alacant andorra antwerpen armenia athens austria barcelona belarus belgium belgrade bristol brussels bulgaria calabria croatia cyprus emilia-romagna estrecho / madiaq euskal herria galiza germany grenoble hungary ireland istanbul italy la plana liege liguria lille linksunten lombardia london madrid malta marseille nantes napoli netherlands nice northern england norway oost-vlaanderen paris/Île-de-france patras piemonte poland portugal roma romania russia saint-petersburg scotland sverige switzerland thessaloniki torun toscana toulouse ukraine united kingdom valencia latin america: argentina bolivia chiapas chile chile sur cmi brasil colombia ecuador mexico peru puerto rico qollasuyu rosario santiago tijuana uruguay valparaiso venezuela venezuela oceania: adelaide aotearoa brisbane burma darwin jakarta manila melbourne perth qc sydney south asia: india mumbai united states: arizona arkansas asheville atlanta austin baltimore big muddy binghamton boston buffalo charlottesville chicago cleveland colorado columbus dc hawaii houston hudson mohawk kansas city la madison maine miami michigan milwaukee minneapolis/st. paul new hampshire new jersey new mexico new orleans north carolina north texas nyc oklahoma philadelphia pittsburgh portland richmond rochester rogue valley saint louis san diego san francisco san francisco bay area santa barbara santa cruz, ca sarasota seattle tampa bay tennessee urbana-champaign vermont western mass worcester west asia: armenia beirut israel palestine process: fbi/legal updates mailing lists process & imc docs tech volunteer projects: print radio satellite tv video regions: oceania united states topics: biotech

Surviving Cities

www.indymedia.org africa: canada: quebec east asia: japan europe: athens barcelona belgium bristol brussels cyprus germany grenoble ireland istanbul lille linksunten nantes netherlands norway portugal united kingdom latin america: argentina cmi brasil rosario oceania: aotearoa united states: austin big muddy binghamton boston chicago columbus la michigan nyc portland rochester saint louis san diego san francisco bay area santa cruz, ca tennessee urbana-champaign worcester west asia: palestine process: fbi/legal updates process & imc docs projects: radio satellite tv
printable version - js reader version - view hidden posts - tags and related articles

THE NEXT 100 YEARS

by Fabio de Oliveira Ribeiro Sunday, Mar. 28, 2010 at 5:53 PM
sithan@ig.com.br

Analysis of George Friedman's book.

The release of this book in Brazil received several matters and complimentary and favorable synopses in the internet. But until the present moment no ví a deep analysis of the same.



Therefore of exit the author affirms that any "... attempt of foreseeing the century XXI that doesn't take in it begins with the recognition of the extraordinary nature of the American power is out of the reality. But I defend a point of view still wider and unexpected: the United States is just in the beginning of his power. The century XXI will be the American century. "



The first thing that jumps to the eyes is the author's incapacity of admitting an evident fact. From the invention of the nuclear weapons the war stopped being the continuation of the politics for other means. Hannah Arendt affirmed with a lot of property that the "... technical development of the implements of the violence reached the point now in that any political objective presumably could correspond to his destruction potential or to justify his effective use in the armed conflict. Like this the war - since times immemorial last and implacable referee in international disputes - it lost a lot of his effectiveness and almost all his fascination. The chess game 'apocalyptic' among the superpowers, it wants to say, among those that maneuver in the highest plan of our civilization, it is being played in agreement with the rule that 'if somebody 'to win' it is the end for both'; it is treated of a game that doesn't introduce any similarity with any war game that preceded it". (ON THE VIOLENCE)



In 301 pages the author describes the next 100 years, in that the USA won't do more than to reaffirm his power winning economical and military conflicts against emerging potencies like China, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Turkey and Japan.



Therefore in the beginning, the author makes an apology of the American culture. He affirms that the "... American pragmatism was an attack to the European metaphysics accused of not being practical." According to him the "... American culture no worked easily with what is beautiful and true. She values to accomplish things, and no the concern on the importance of what is done."



What seems an innovation is actually a practical application of the concept of Johann F. Herbart (1776/1841) second which "of the thoughts leave feelings and, of these, beginnings and action manners". Herbart was a critic of Rousseau and of the other educators that depreciated the instruction. But it was also a ferocious critic of the traditional education for teaching useless things for the action. Therefore, the American pragmatism and his pedagogic correspondent was not born in the USA.



For George Friedman China is a paper tiger. "The problem to China is political. China is sustained because of the money not of the ideology. When an economical crisis comes and the money to leave of entering, not only the bank system will have their spasms, but the whole fabric of the Chinese society will tremble."



The American financial crisis came and the economical growth in China only moved back 2%. China resisted the retraction of the world trade very well and they were not Chinese that asked the Americans for help, but the Americans that asked Chinese for help. On this exact moment the Americans try to convince China to value Yuan but Chinese continue if attaching to his ideology.



Among the effects of the economical destruction of China, the author foresees that a "... very real future to China in 2020 is his old nightmare - a country divided among regional leaders that compete foreign potencies amongst themselves removing advantage of the situation to create areas where can determine the economical rules for his own good, and a central government trying to sustain everything this, but failing."



The author seems to be a follower of the myth of the eternal return. For him the history is cyclical and the problems that corroded the Chinese empire in the century XIX will torment Chinese in the century XXI again. Friedman ignores the essential. The collapse of China in the century XIX was one more effect of his isolation than of his bold insert in the international market of changes. Chinese seem to have learned the lesson: to grow and to expand or to refuse and to die. I don't think that Chinese ignore his own history or that they intend to retreat in the time. The most probable is that before an eminent economical collapse, the communists will make the same as the Americans: to appeal for the war as form of maintaining united his immense population and his active economy.



In the imaginary of Friedmam Russia is predestined to the collapse. "The protection of the borders is not the only problem of Russia today. The extremely conscious healthy Russians that they are in front of a considerable demographic crisis. The current population of Russia is about 145 million inhabitants, and the projections for 2050 rotate around 90 million and 125 million. The time plays against. Inside soon, the problem of Russia will be his capacity to maintain an army sufficiently big for their strategic needs."



Vast Armies are things absolutely anachronic and without any real strategic value. There is basante time the borders of the countries are not more protected for Armies, but for automated arsenals operated by a number every time smaller of specialists. The dissuasive power of the tanks, hunts, bombardiers, missiles and of the nuclear weapons they guaranteed the borders of the countries in the second half of the century XX and they will continue to do this in the century XXI. At the present time the Armies have more the function of avoiding internal revolutions than of preventing external wars. The author's reasoning would be valid in Napoleon's times. At the present time it is just an anachronism that besides leaves of taking into account the technological capacity that the Russians have been demonstrating of modernizing their military equipments.



Friedman affirms that the "... United States will be anxious for increasing the power of Poland and of the Baltic countries and to let them to face Russia." Obama gave up on installing missiles in Poland and the USA anything did concerning the Russian campaign in Abkasia and South Ossetia. As we can see the facts they already began to run over the author's forecasts.



In the following chapters the author foresees a fort economical growth of the USA after overcoming the population crisis with the increase of the immigration of Mexican. He also foresees an armed conflict between the USA and Turkey, Poland (that will have dominated Russia) and Japan. The American victory will be a consequence of the construction of military bases in the space. After the victory on Turks, Poles and Japanese, the Americans will enter in war with Mexico because of the increase of the Mexican nationalism inside of the USA. This conflict will end in tie.



Any one that is not familiarized with rhetoric will conclude that the book is excellent. The most careful will notice that there is a different one among the what the book is and what he pretends to be. THE NEXT 100 YEARS it pretends to be product of the most genuine métis (Greek word used to designate the capacity to advance the facts and to appropriate of the best practical result by a trick), but it doesn't go of a collection of adorned hyperboles by correct statistical data and projections of the present and of a certain past in the future, as if the own future didn't go something absolutely uncertain or it could be conditioned by the language.



THE NEXT 100 YEARS book not only it is ridiculous as extremely pernicious (especially if the North Americans believe in him). To the Brazilian readers I suggest that they read this book taking into account Hannah Arendt warnings:



"The logical flaw in those hypothetical constructions of the future events is always the same: what before appears as a simple hypothesis - with or without their consequent alternatives, according to the sophistication degree - it becomes immediately, in general after some few paragraphs, a 'fact', which, then, it originates an entire current of similar no-facts, then resulting that the character purely speculative of every taskwork it is forgotten. It is not necessary to say what is not science, but pseudo sciense, 'the desperate attempt of the social and of the behavior sciences', in Noam Chomsky's words, 'of imitating the superficial characteristics of the sciences that really have a significant intellectual content. And the most obvious and 'deeper objection to that type of strategic theory is not his limited usefulness, but his danger, because she can take us to believe that we have an understanding near of those events and a control on his flow, what doesn't have', as it indicated Richard N. Goodwin recently in a magazine article that had the rare virtue of detecting the characteristic 'unconscious humor' of many of those pompous theories pseudo sciences." (ON THE VIOLENCE)



In reason of his optimism and arrogance George Friedmam did for deserving the words what Safo it drove the women that "of versatile soul in his lightness think only in the present." The contempt for the history impelled the strategist to foresee the persistence of the present in spite of the unpredictability of the future facts. Friedman forgot of what happened to medieval Siena, that it was surpassed absolutely by Florence by a fact unexpected: the bubonic plague. What does impede that the USA are Siena of the century XXI? Anything and the book of Friedman to it can contribute to this unchaining exactly what doesn't want.






Report this post as:

Local News

Change Links September 2018 posted S02 10:22PM

More Scandals Rock Southern California Nuke Plant San Onofre A30 11:09PM

Site Outage Friday A30 3:49PM

Change Links August 2018 A14 1:56AM

Setback for Developer of SC Farm Land A12 11:09PM

More problems at Shutdown San Onofre Nuke J29 10:40PM

Change Links 2018 July posted J09 8:27PM

More Pix: "Families Belong Together," Pasadena J02 7:16PM

"Families Belong Together" March, Pasadena J02 7:08PM

Short Report on the Families Belong Together Protest in Los Angeles J30 11:26PM

Summer 2018 National Immigrant Solidarity Network News Alert! J11 6:58AM

Watch the Debate: Excluded Candidates for Governor of California M31 5:20AM

Change Links June 2018 posted M28 7:41AM

The Montrose Peace Vigil at 12 Years M22 8:01PM

Unity Archive Project M21 9:42AM

Dianne Feinstein's Promotion of War, Secret Animal Abuse, Military Profiteering, Censorshi M17 10:22PM

CA Senate Bill 1303 would require an independent coroner rather than being part of police M10 9:08PM

Three years after OC snitch scandal, no charges filed against sheriffs deputies M10 8:57PM

California police agencies violate Brown Act (open meetings) M02 8:31PM

Insane Company Wants To Send Nuke Plant Waste To New Mexico A29 11:47PM

Change Links May 2018 A27 8:40AM

Worker-Owned Car Wash on Vermont Closed A27 5:37AM

GUIDE TO REBEL CITY LOS ANGELES AVAILABLE A13 12:39AM

lausd whistle blower A11 6:58AM

Website Upgrade A10 10:02AM

Help KCET and UCLA identify 60s-70s Chicano images A04 8:02PM

UCLA Luskin: Casting Youth Justice in a Different Light A02 6:58PM

Change Links April 2018 A01 6:27PM

More Local News...

Other/Breaking News

Antrhopocène, le grand effondrement S19 9:53AM

Creative Destruction Hack Diamonds Windows/iOS/Android - Creative Destruction Generator S19 12:51AM

Abolir l'économie S18 11:18AM

The Dictatorship of Corporations S17 5:26PM

18 Lethal Consequences Of Hunting S17 3:13PM

Paraphysique de l'outplacement déontologue S15 6:51AM

Creative Destruction Hack Mod Generator S15 3:49AM

Shopping du bashing S14 8:42AM

After Lehman Brothers, Experts Say Global Financial Crisis Can Happen Again S13 8:28PM

“Animaniacs in Concert!” Starring Voice Legend Rob Paulsen S12 9:30PM

Probabilités de fin d'humanité S12 6:49AM

Florida Area of Migrant Farmworkers Denied Right to Construct Health Clinic near NaplesCIW S11 2:57AM

Propagande de virus, virus de propagande S10 7:34AM

Steer clear of work morality! S09 12:10PM

Sweatshop Lodge Ceremony Continues in US Fed Prisons Led by Inmates S08 6:17PM

Paraphysique de l'origami S08 7:11AM

The Shortwave Report 09/07/18 Listen Globally! S06 11:23PM

August 2018 Honduras Coup update S06 12:28PM

Du réussissement putréfié S06 10:55AM

Brett Kavanaugh Filled The 5th Circuit With Execution Judges S06 6:14AM

Log S06 4:25AM

Augusta Georgia Woman Gets 5 Year Prison Sentence for Writing About Russians Crime Acts S05 8:29AM

Paraphysique de contextualité S05 8:29AM

Crisis Regulation in Global Capitalism S03 3:39PM

Ex-voto de réification S03 10:24AM

Please Oppose Warmonger, Execution and Torture Supporting Bush Operative Brett Kavanaugh A31 10:45PM

Paraphysique d'exploitation occultation A31 10:24PM

Ryan Zinke Is Charging Taxpayers For A Trophy Hunters' Council A31 2:10PM

More Breaking News...
© 2000-2018 Los Angeles Independent Media Center. Unless otherwise stated by the author, all content is free for non-commercial reuse, reprint, and rebroadcast, on the net and elsewhere. Opinions are those of the contributors and are not necessarily endorsed by the Los Angeles Independent Media Center. Running sf-active v0.9.4 Disclaimer | Privacy