Poll: Schwarzenegger gains on Davis

By CBS.MarketWatch.com Sept 28, 2003


When asked if they would vote to recall Davis, 63 percent of 787 registered, probable voters said they would vote yes and 35 percent said they would vote no.

On the second part of the ballot that calls for naming a replacement for Davis, 40 percent of respondents said Schwarzenegger was their No. 1 choice.

Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante garnered 25 percent of voters' support while Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock received 18 percent, according to the poll.

In the single digits were Green Party candidate Peter Camejo, with 5 percent, and syndicated columnist and independent candidate Arianna Huffington with 2 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Separately, when invited to debate each other on CNN's Larry King Live, California Gov. Gray Davis accepted while Republican challenger Arnold Schwarzenegger indicated he will decline, according to published reports.

"Gray Davis is taking a page from the desperate candidates' handbook. He knows he's behind," said Todd Harris, a spokesman for the Schwarzenegger campaign. "He knows he needs to do something to shake up the dynamics of this campaign."

Even as they try to portray themselves as locked in a two-candidate rivalry, it doesn't look like Schwarzenegger will be the last man standing in the Republican column.

As the action-movie hero presses his bid to replace Gov. Davis on Oct. 7, previous GOP candidates have endorsed him. But a holdout, Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock, is adamant that he won't quit the race.

Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the only Democrat bidding to replace Davis, has lost his edge in several polls taken by the campaigns, according to the San Francisco Chronicle. Bustamante's also under assault in court over campaign donations.

Schwarzenegger received a public endorsement Friday from the money man behind the recall.

Rep. Darrell Issa, who financed the election's petition drive, appeared with the actor at a Santa Monica rally. Issa's backing follows a similar move the day before from Bill Simon, who lost to Davis last November.

Both Southern California conservatives had been early entrants among the 135 candidates looking to preside in Sacramento, but they also quit once polls showed them garnering no better than single digit percentages.

McClintock, acknowledged as a master of budget details from his years in the Legislature, has maintained that he's in the race to the end, even though his support added to Schwarzenegger's would virtually guarantee a Republican statewide victory.

Indeed, McClintock announced plans for a closing blitz of TV ads. In addition, an Indian tribe has promised to spend $1.1 million on McClintock advertising.

A key issue has evolved in the campaign over Indian-run casinos, with Schwarzenegger ads criticizing Bustamante for taking more than $3 million from tribes and shifting it into different accounts as a way of avoiding campaign finance laws. A judge in Sacramento has ordered Bustamante to return the money, which the candidate claims has already been spent.

A California Chamber of Commerce poll showed Schwarzenegger ahead of Bustamante, 35 percent to 31 percent, with McClintock at 17 percent. The poll of 807 likely voters on Wednesday and Thursday had a 3.5 percent plus or minus error probability.

That beauty contest only kicks in if Gov. Davis is recalled and polls cited by Fox News suggest Davis is down as much as 14 percentage points on the primary question. That's wider than the most recent statewide numbers from the Field Poll and the Public Policy Institute, which showed Davis narrowing the gap.

In recent days, Davis has challenged Schwarzenegger to a debate -- rejected by the Austrian immigrant -- and launched ads claiming that the burly one has failed to vote in several elections, distorts the state's budget situation and misstates job losses during Davis' administration.

Davis noted in recent ads that this campaign has taken on a circus atmosphere.

Davis's ads warn: "When the laughs are over, Californians will have to live with the outcome."

The Associated Press contributed to this report.