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by richard myers
Tuesday, Jan. 28, 2003 at 4:55 AM
If you watch this lecture video, you will get a chill down your spine when you realize that the current economic and military situation was appreciated and predicted more than two years ago by a petroleum geologist!
uswarforoil.jpg, image/jpeg, 720x1131
Here is a taste, read to the end. Watch the video for the full impact. Remember, this lecture occurred before Bush took office!
Presentation at the Technical University of Clausthal
Ladies and Gentlemen
· Thank you for inviting me to make this presentation.
· To-day, I am going to talk about the depletion of oil. I am a petroleum geologist and have been studying the subject directly and indirectly for many years. It is a very important subject, as is amply confirmed by recent events.
· I compliment the organisers for raising the subject in Germany. It is a large and strong country, which can exert its influence both on Europe and the World. Truth has always proved a powerful weapon. It needs to take action.
The title of my talk is Peak Oil. It truly is a turning point for Mankind. It will affect us all. It is a large subject, and it will take us about an hour to work through it.
The purpose of the talk is to evaluate the resource base and its depletion. Then we can go on to study the present crisis and try to see how it will evolve. Finally we can think specifically about Germany's predicament.
4. Main Points
In summary, these are the main points that we have to grasp:
· Conventional oil - and I will explain what I mean by that - provides most of the oil produced today, and is responsible for about 95% all oil that has been produced so far.
· It will continue to dominate supply for a long time to come. It is what matters most.
· Its discovery peaked in the 1960s. We now find one barrel for every four we consume.
· Middle East share of production is set to rise. The rest of the world peaked in 1997, and is therefore in terminal decline
· World peak comes within about five years
The poor countries of the world will bear most of the burden. But the United States will be in serious difficulties. There is, I think, a strong danger of some ill-considered military intervention to try to secure oil.
It may herald the end of the US economic and cultural hegemony
Introduction in German, keep watching for English.
One of the best resources for information about war in the Middle East is the website of the Colorado Campaign for Middle East Peace. Its great strength is preservation of media articles to create an up-to-date historical record, particularly about Palestine/Israel and Iraq. The website is here:
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