From the NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008:
... Excerpt ...
GOAL 2: Understand climate variability and change to enhance
society's ability to plan and respond
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Input shown below was not given serious consideration for
use in the NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008.
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Input for NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan (5 June 2003)
by Patrick J. Neuman, Senior Hydrologist,
NOAA-NWS, North Central River Forecast Center
Add - "Of paramount importance is to greatly increase the application
of climate information and knowledge to aid in the preparations
for rapidly warming U.S. regional climates having increasing
frequencies and extremes of excessive heat and humidity for
longer periods of time, with the greatest extremes in the city
environments where the majority of U.S. citizens live."
..... was based on Exhibits A, B, and C provided below, and on
extensive physical evidence that rapid regional climate warming
within the United States is taking place, with full understanding that
weather and climate variability has taken place during the past and
will continue to take place during the future, but that extensive
evidence indicates that the variability in climate in the future will take
place on an inclined plane with increasing overall temperatures and
humidity in the atmosphere, and with warmer lakes, rivers, oceans,
and land areas.
Exhibit A
Report: Cities Warming Faster Than Rural Areas Across U.S.
"As reported in the April issue of the journal "Environmental Health
Perspectives" (Vol. 111, No. 4), U.S. cities average 10 more hot
summer nights -- classified as above 70 degrees F in the East,
South, and Midwest, and above 80 degrees F in the Southwest --than
they did 40 years ago. Nationwide in the U.S., there has been a 300%
greater rate of warming in cities than in the rural countryside,
according to a study by Arthur DeGaetano, associate professor of
Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University, and Robert
J. Allen, then a research support specialist at the university.
The study, which originally appeared in the November 2002 issue of
the "Journal of Climate", analyzed historical data on daily high and
low temperatures from 361 weather stations across the United States
from 1910 to 1996, adjusting for omissions, differences in observation
times and other discontinuities, and using the hottest 10%, 5%, and
1% of all the daily high or low temperatures recorded by a station over
its period of operation.
For the period 1960-1996, the pair found that 75% of stations showed an
average increase in both hot summer days and hot summer nights. The
rate of warming was greatest in the East and least in the central section.
The results also showed that cities are warming at more than triple the
rate of rural locales.
http://danenet.wicip.org/bcp/neuman_gw.pdf
http://danenet.danenet.org/bcp/shp.html
"The ultimate test of man's conscience may be his willingness to
sacrifice something today for future generations whose words of thanks
will not be heard."
- Gaylord Nelson, Earth Day founder.
provided with approval from author Michael T. Neuman,
U.S. citizen, Madison, WI, report available at:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ClimateArchive/message/212
Exhibit B.
"Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on
our Communities and Ecosystems". Citation: Kling,G.W., K.Hayhoe,
L.B.Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S.Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J.Shutter,
M.M.Wander, D.J.Wuebbles, D.R.Zak, R.L.Lindroth, S.C.Moser, and
M.L. Wilson (2003).
Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on
our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,
Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America,
Washington, D.C.
Excerpts from the Report: "What is the likely climate future for the
Great Lakes region?"
"In general, the climate of the Great Lakes region will grow warmer and
probably drier during the twenty-first century. Climate models predict that
by the end of the century, temperatures in the region will warm by 5 to
12ºF (3 to 7ºC) in winter, and 5 to 20ºF (3 to 11 ºF) in summer. Nighttime
temperatures are likely to warm more than daytime temperatures, and
extreme heat will be more common." ... " In addition, the frequency of
24-hour and multiday downpours, and thus flooding, may continue to
increase." http://www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes
Additional Information related to Exhibit B. The authors met with the
public in Madison, Wisconsin in April, 2003. People were encouraged to
act now in support of the findings in the April, 2003 report. One of
the authors is Dr. John J. Magnuson, Emeritus Professor of Zoology and
past Director of the Center for Limnology at the University of
Wisconsin-Madison. Dr. Magnuson authored more than 350 publications
and five books, with research in long-term fisheries ecology, biodiversity,
species invasions, and the effects of climate change and variability on
inland waters. Dr. Magnuson earned his Ph.D from University of British
Columbia, Canada, in zoology with a minor in oceanography.
Exhibit C.
"Waters of Wisconsin - the future of our aquatic ecosystems and
resources". Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin Academy of Sciences,
Arts and Letters. WASAL. 2003. Co-chairs of Waters of Wisconsin
Committee:Stephen Born,University of Wisconsin-Madison, Patricia
Leavenworth, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service,
Madison, Wisconsin, John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin
Madison (emeritus).
Excerpts from "Waters of Wisconsin Report: ... "Evidence of climate
change can be found in Wisconsin's waters as well. The effects of
warming can be seen in ice-cover changes on Lake Mendota; "..."More
important, the trend indicates that aquatic ecosystems are responding
to the warming.
Other changes are apparent in Wisconsin's water. Groundwater levels,
stream baseflows, and seepage lake levels (lakes with no inflow or
outflow streams) have risen abruptly since 1970 in most of Wisconsin.
Groundwater levels have been rising in most areas where groundwater
withdrawal is relatively limited. These increases may reflect either
long-term climate change or a shorter-term wet cycle; both could
account for greater recharge. Climate change can lead to increased
recharge rates by increasing the amount of precipitation or by altering
its timing (recharge increases when more rain falls during the autumn
and early winter, when evapotranspiration rates are low and the ground
is not frozen). The rise in water levels may also reflect improvements
in land management; however, the abruptness of the recent changes
suggests that it involves a combination of improved land management
and climate change (Magnuson et. al in press)."
The draft Strategic Plan used for comment was provided in the
5/12/03 NWS Focus Newsletter.
Patrick J. Neuman
Hydrologist, NWS NCRFC Date sent: June 5, 2003 "
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NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (about 30 pages):
http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/LO%20Strat%20Plans%202003%20Final/newnwssp%2 010-01-03%20final.pdf
NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (1 page short version):
http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/onepager.pdf
NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (18 page coffee table) long download:
http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/NOAAStrategicHIRES.pdf
NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (long version):
http://www.osp.noaa.gov/pdfs/FinalMarch31st.pdf
RELATED STUDY - PAPER, Presented at NOAA-NWS-Climate Workshop
in Reno,NV Oct 2003
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Powerful evidence of rapid global warming in the Midwest & Great Plains
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I prepared a paper & presented it at the NOAA-National Weather Service-Climate Prediction Center Workshop in Reno, Nevada, 22 October 2003. I took pictures on the way back to Minnesota. Links to large pictures and my paper on Earlier Snowmelt Runoff for rivers in Minnesota,Wisconsin & North Dakota are listed below.
The paper shows definite climate warming trends for earlier snowmelt runoff and increasing dewpoints in the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains. The data for the paper includes 100 years of daily river discharges - high quality United States Geological Survey mean daily flow data - and average monthly & annual dewpoints and air temperatures - 50 years of dewpoints & 100 years of air temperatures.
My paper on Earlier Snowmelt Runoff, including text, figures, & data are on the Minnesotan's For Sustainability website, accessed by the link at:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ClimateArchive/message/264
Earlier Snowmelt Runoff paper and images of Fossil Butte & Green River Formation:
Large image of Fossil Butte National Monument in southwest Wyoming at:
http://www.ucimc.org/newswire/display/14091/index.php
Large image of Green River Formation in northeast Utah at:
http://arizona.indymedia.org/news/2003/11/13572.php
Large image of my poster as it was presented at the Reno workshop in October 2003:
http://cleveland.indymedia.org/news/2003/11/7204.php
