{"article":{"id":94717,"heading":"Input "Of paramount importance" not seriously considered by NOAA-NWS","author":"Pat Neuman","created":"2003-11-18 04:45:57","modified":"2013-11-11 00:27:38","last_modified":"Mon, 11 Nov 2013 07:27:38","article":"

From the NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008:

... Excerpt ...

GOAL 2: Understand climate variability and change to enhance

society's ability to plan and respond

--------------------------

Input shown below was not given serious consideration for

use in the NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008.

--------------------------

Input for NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan (5 June 2003)

by Patrick J. Neuman, Senior Hydrologist,

NOAA-NWS, North Central River Forecast Center

Add - \"Of paramount importance is to greatly increase the application

of climate information and knowledge to aid in the preparations

for rapidly warming U.S. regional climates having increasing

frequencies and extremes of excessive heat and humidity for

longer periods of time, with the greatest extremes in the city

environments where the majority of U.S. citizens live.\"

..... was based on Exhibits A, B, and C provided below, and on

extensive physical evidence that rapid regional climate warming

within the United States is taking place, with full understanding that

weather and climate variability has taken place during the past and

will continue to take place during the future, but that extensive

evidence indicates that the variability in climate in the future will take

place on an inclined plane with increasing overall temperatures and

humidity in the atmosphere, and with warmer lakes, rivers, oceans,

and land areas.

Exhibit A

Report: Cities Warming Faster Than Rural Areas Across U.S.

\"As reported in the April issue of the journal \"Environmental Health

Perspectives\" (Vol. 111, No. 4), U.S. cities average 10 more hot

summer nights -- classified as above 70 degrees F in the East,

South, and Midwest, and above 80 degrees F in the Southwest --than

they did 40 years ago. Nationwide in the U.S., there has been a 300%

greater rate of warming in cities than in the rural countryside,

according to a study by Arthur DeGaetano, associate professor of

Earth and atmospheric sciences at Cornell University, and Robert

J. Allen, then a research support specialist at the university.

The study, which originally appeared in the November 2002 issue of

the \"Journal of Climate\", analyzed historical data on daily high and

low temperatures from 361 weather stations across the United States

from 1910 to 1996, adjusting for omissions, differences in observation

times and other discontinuities, and using the hottest 10%, 5%, and

1% of all the daily high or low temperatures recorded by a station over

its period of operation.

For the period 1960-1996, the pair found that 75% of stations showed an

average increase in both hot summer days and hot summer nights. The

rate of warming was greatest in the East and least in the central section.

The results also showed that cities are warming at more than triple the

rate of rural locales.

http:\/\/danenet.wicip.org\/bcp\/neuman_gw.pdf<\/a>

http:\/\/danenet.danenet.org\/bcp\/shp.html<\/a>

\"The ultimate test of man's conscience may be his willingness to

sacrifice something today for future generations whose words of thanks

will not be heard.\"

- Gaylord Nelson, Earth Day founder.

provided with approval from author Michael T. Neuman,

U.S. citizen, Madison, WI, report available at:

http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/ClimateArchive\/message\/212<\/a>

Exhibit B.

\"Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on

our Communities and Ecosystems\". Citation: Kling,G.W., K.Hayhoe,

L.B.Johnson, J.J. Magnuson, S.Polasky, S.K. Robinson, B.J.Shutter,

M.M.Wander, D.J.Wuebbles, D.R.Zak, R.L.Lindroth, S.C.Moser, and

M.L. Wilson (2003).

Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: Impacts on

our Communities and Ecosystems. Union of Concerned Scientists,

Cambridge, Massachusetts, and Ecological Society of America,

Washington, D.C.

Excerpts from the Report: \"What is the likely climate future for the

Great Lakes region?\"

\"In general, the climate of the Great Lakes region will grow warmer and

probably drier during the twenty-first century. Climate models predict that

by the end of the century, temperatures in the region will warm by 5 to

12ºF (3 to 7ºC) in winter, and 5 to 20ºF (3 to 11 ºF) in summer. Nighttime

temperatures are likely to warm more than daytime temperatures, and

extreme heat will be more common.\" ... \" In addition, the frequency of

24-hour and multiday downpours, and thus flooding, may continue to

increase.\" http:\/\/www.ucsusa.org\/greatlakes<\/a>

Additional Information related to Exhibit B. The authors met with the

public in Madison, Wisconsin in April, 2003. People were encouraged to

act now in support of the findings in the April, 2003 report. One of

the authors is Dr. John J. Magnuson, Emeritus Professor of Zoology and

past Director of the Center for Limnology at the University of

Wisconsin-Madison. Dr. Magnuson authored more than 350 publications

and five books, with research in long-term fisheries ecology, biodiversity,

species invasions, and the effects of climate change and variability on

inland waters. Dr. Magnuson earned his Ph.D from University of British

Columbia, Canada, in zoology with a minor in oceanography.

Exhibit C.

\"Waters of Wisconsin - the future of our aquatic ecosystems and

resources\". Madison, Wisconsin. Wisconsin Academy of Sciences,

Arts and Letters. WASAL. 2003. Co-chairs of Waters of Wisconsin

Committee:Stephen Born,University of Wisconsin-Madison, Patricia

Leavenworth, USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service,

Madison, Wisconsin, John Magnuson, University of Wisconsin

Madison (emeritus).

Excerpts from \"Waters of Wisconsin Report: ... \"Evidence of climate

change can be found in Wisconsin's waters as well. The effects of

warming can be seen in ice-cover changes on Lake Mendota; \"...\"More

important, the trend indicates that aquatic ecosystems are responding

to the warming.

Other changes are apparent in Wisconsin's water. Groundwater levels,

stream baseflows, and seepage lake levels (lakes with no inflow or

outflow streams) have risen abruptly since 1970 in most of Wisconsin.

Groundwater levels have been rising in most areas where groundwater

withdrawal is relatively limited. These increases may reflect either

long-term climate change or a shorter-term wet cycle; both could

account for greater recharge. Climate change can lead to increased

recharge rates by increasing the amount of precipitation or by altering

its timing (recharge increases when more rain falls during the autumn

and early winter, when evapotranspiration rates are low and the ground

is not frozen). The rise in water levels may also reflect improvements

in land management; however, the abruptness of the recent changes

suggests that it involves a combination of improved land management

and climate change (Magnuson et. al in press).\"

The draft Strategic Plan used for comment was provided in the

5\/12\/03 NWS Focus Newsletter.

Patrick J. Neuman

Hydrologist, NWS NCRFC Date sent: June 5, 2003 \"

--------------------------------

NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (about 30 pages):

http:\/\/www.osp.noaa.gov\/pdfs\/LO%20Strat%20Plans%202003%20Final\/newnwssp%2<\/a> 010-01-03%20final.pdf

NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (1 page short version):

http:\/\/www.osp.noaa.gov\/pdfs\/onepager.pdf<\/a>

NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (18 page coffee table) long download:

http:\/\/www.osp.noaa.gov\/pdfs\/NOAAStrategicHIRES.pdf<\/a>

NOAA Strategic Plan FY2003 - FY2008 (long version):

http:\/\/www.osp.noaa.gov\/pdfs\/FinalMarch31st.pdf<\/a>

RELATED STUDY - PAPER, Presented at NOAA-NWS-Climate Workshop

in Reno,NV Oct 2003

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Powerful evidence of rapid global warming in the Midwest & Great Plains

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I prepared a paper & presented it at the NOAA-National Weather Service-Climate Prediction Center Workshop in Reno, Nevada, 22 October 2003. I took pictures on the way back to Minnesota. Links to large pictures and my paper on Earlier Snowmelt Runoff for rivers in Minnesota,Wisconsin & North Dakota are listed below.

The paper shows definite climate warming trends for earlier snowmelt runoff and increasing dewpoints in the Upper Midwest and Northern Great Plains. The data for the paper includes 100 years of daily river discharges - high quality United States Geological Survey mean daily flow data - and average monthly & annual dewpoints and air temperatures - 50 years of dewpoints & 100 years of air temperatures.

My paper on Earlier Snowmelt Runoff, including text, figures, & data are on the Minnesotan's For Sustainability website, accessed by the link at:

http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/ClimateArchive\/message\/264<\/a>

Earlier Snowmelt Runoff paper and images of Fossil Butte & Green River Formation:

Large image of Fossil Butte National Monument in southwest Wyoming at:

http:\/\/www.ucimc.org\/newswire\/display\/14091\/index.php<\/a>

Large image of Green River Formation in northeast Utah at:

http:\/\/arizona.indymedia.org\/news\/2003\/11\/13572.php<\/a>

Large image of my poster as it was presented at the Reno workshop in October 2003:

http:\/\/cleveland.indymedia.org\/news\/2003\/11\/7204.php<\/a>



<\/p>\n","contact":"npat1@juno.com","link":"http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/ClimateArchive","address":"Chanhassen, Minnesota","phone":"","parent_id":0,"mime_type":"text\/plain","summary":"Input by Patrick J. Neuman, Senior Hydrologist, sent June 5, 2003 for \r\nconsideration in the NOAA-NWS Strategic Plan for FY 2003 - FY 2008 \r\nstated: \r\n\r\n... "Of paramount importance is to greatly increase the application \r\nof climate information and knowledge to aid in the preparations \r\nfor rapidly warming U.S. regional climates having increasing \r\nfrequencies and extremes of excessive heat and humidity for \r\nlonger periods of time" ... ","numcomment":0,"fileurl":"\/uploads\/","filesize":null,"article_url":"\/news\/2003\/11\/94717.php"},"attachments":[],"comments":[]}