imc indymedia

Los Angeles Indymedia : Activist News

white themeblack themered themetheme help
About Us Contact Us Calendar Publish RSS
Features
latest news
best of news
syndication
commentary


KILLRADIO

VozMob

ABCF LA

A-Infos Radio

Indymedia On Air

Dope-X-Resistance-LA List

LAAMN List




IMC Network:

Original Cities

www.indymedia.org africa: ambazonia canarias estrecho / madiaq kenya nigeria south africa canada: hamilton london, ontario maritimes montreal ontario ottawa quebec thunder bay vancouver victoria windsor winnipeg east asia: burma jakarta japan korea manila qc europe: abruzzo alacant andorra antwerpen armenia athens austria barcelona belarus belgium belgrade bristol brussels bulgaria calabria croatia cyprus emilia-romagna estrecho / madiaq euskal herria galiza germany grenoble hungary ireland istanbul italy la plana liege liguria lille linksunten lombardia london madrid malta marseille nantes napoli netherlands nice northern england norway oost-vlaanderen paris/Île-de-france patras piemonte poland portugal roma romania russia saint-petersburg scotland sverige switzerland thessaloniki torun toscana toulouse ukraine united kingdom valencia latin america: argentina bolivia chiapas chile chile sur cmi brasil colombia ecuador mexico peru puerto rico qollasuyu rosario santiago tijuana uruguay valparaiso venezuela venezuela oceania: adelaide aotearoa brisbane burma darwin jakarta manila melbourne perth qc sydney south asia: india mumbai united states: arizona arkansas asheville atlanta austin baltimore big muddy binghamton boston buffalo charlottesville chicago cleveland colorado columbus dc hawaii houston hudson mohawk kansas city la madison maine miami michigan milwaukee minneapolis/st. paul new hampshire new jersey new mexico new orleans north carolina north texas nyc oklahoma philadelphia pittsburgh portland richmond rochester rogue valley saint louis san diego san francisco san francisco bay area santa barbara santa cruz, ca sarasota seattle tampa bay tennessee urbana-champaign vermont western mass worcester west asia: armenia beirut israel palestine process: fbi/legal updates mailing lists process & imc docs tech volunteer projects: print radio satellite tv video regions: oceania united states topics: biotech

Surviving Cities

www.indymedia.org africa: canada: quebec east asia: japan europe: athens barcelona belgium bristol brussels cyprus germany grenoble ireland istanbul lille linksunten nantes netherlands norway portugal united kingdom latin america: argentina cmi brasil rosario oceania: aotearoa united states: austin big muddy binghamton boston chicago columbus la michigan nyc portland rochester saint louis san diego san francisco bay area santa cruz, ca tennessee urbana-champaign worcester west asia: palestine process: fbi/legal updates process & imc docs projects: radio satellite tv
printable version - js reader version - view hidden posts - tags and related articles

Washington hawks under fire for ignoring advice

by Tricky Dick Saturday, Mar. 29, 2003 at 6:57 AM

BRITISH and American intelligence badly miscalculated the level of resistance that coalition forces would encounter in Iraq.

From The London Times (UK)

March 28, 2003

Washington hawks under fire for ignoring advice

By Richard Beeston and Tom Baldwin



BRITISH and American intelligence badly miscalculated the level of resistance that coalition forces would encounter in Iraq, with analysts predicting that troops would reach Baghdad in days and defeat President Saddam Hussein in a matter of weeks.

As thousands more US soldiers began deploying in the Gulf for what could be a campaign lasting months, there were growing questions in London and Washington over the failure to anticipate the stubborn resistance being encountered.

At the start of the war British military officers were confident that the southern city of Basra would fall quickly, that the Shia Muslims in the south would rise up against Saddam and that there would be token resistance on the road to Baghdad. "The intelligence assessment seriously underestimated what to expect," one Whitehall source, who briefed Downing Street on the dangers before the war, said.

His advice was largely ignored, even though Saddam was openly making careful preparations to defend himself. He armed and trained irregular forces, bribed tribal leaders and used propaganda to portray the looming war as an attempt by America to conquer the country and steal its oil.

It is understood that British intelligence had been receiving reports from inside Iraq. It strongly suggested that the regime was weak and would topple if pushed, particularly in the southern city of Basra, which is the area allocated to the British forces.

Part of that assessment was based on the uprisings of 1991, when thousands of Shias rebelled against Saddam and were brutally suppressed by his forces.

British government sources admitted yesterday that there had been a "general expectation" on both sides of the Atlantic that "the Iraqi people would revolt against Saddam as they had in 1991" or at least that there might be coup "within the higher echelons" of the regime.

One foreign intelligence source, with good first-hand knowledge of Iraq, said that this analysis was flawed. He insisted that the Shias may hate Saddam, but that they have no love for the Americans and British, who let them down 12 years ago and whose motives today are greeted with suspicion.

"The Shias of the south fought hard against Iran for eight years during the Iran-Iraq War. They were Iraqis first and Shias second. There is a strong nationalist feeling in Iraq and Saddam is an expert at exploiting it," he said.

Much of the blame in London was directed at Washington. Most of the shared US-British intelligence is said to have been about troop movements and whether Saddam possesses weapons of mass destruction. There are now doubts about the veracity of at least some of this information.

"Plans have been driven by US intelligence," a Whitehall source said. "But we have been aware for some time that they rely, perhaps too much, on radio intercepts and satellite photography."

The Foreign Office is believed to have been concerned at the credence attached in Washington to information from Iraqi exiles with political connections to the Bush Administration. They widely predicted that the Iraqi Armed Forces would defect as soon as the war broke out.

Criticism is also growing within Washington against hawks in the Bush Administration. They were supremely confident that America’s overwhelming military might and its tactic of "shock and awe" would cause the Iraqi military to buckle and leave the regime’s hierarchy isolated. Toby Dodge, an expert on Iraq at Warwick University, said that much of this assessment had been based on wishful thinking by the neo-conservatives, who lacked first-hand experience of modern Iraqi society and politics.

Reports in Washington yesterday suggested that intelligence analysts at the CIA and the Pentagon did warn the Administration of the dangers of expecting a quick victory in Iraq, but that the warnings were ignored by the White House and the Pentagon.

This view was confirmed by leading hawks in the Administration in the run-up to the war. Only weeks before the offensive was launched, Donald Rumsfeld, the US Defence Secretary, complained privately that senior Pentagon officers were being far too cautious.

Dick Cheney, the Vice-President, and Paul Wolfowitz, Mr Rumsfeld’s deputy, also predicted that American troops would be greeted as liberators.

In December last year two senior Pentagon officers, General Eric Shinseki, the commandant of the US Marine Corps, and General James Jones, the commander of US forces in Europe, questioned the assumption that the Iraqi regime would collapse after a US assault. They called for more preparation for "worst-case scenarios" and insisted that detailed planning be made for a siege of Baghdad.

Downing Street emphasised that Tony Blair, along with the rest of the Cabinet, had steered clear of predicting a swift war and easy victory in Iraq. Mr Blair did say, however, said that the Iraqi people would benefit from regime change and that as "the victims of Saddam" they would prefer to be led by anyone but him.

Although the Ministry of Defence is understood to have taken a back seat in war planning, it successfully counselled the Pentagon against believing some early predictions that Saddam could be removed through air power and as few as 50,000 ground troops. One official said last night: "The Iraqi Government could still implode. Don’t forget that in Kosovo and Afghanistan things changed very rapidly just when the media was proclaiming the military campaign had gone wrong. Iraqi civilians have to believe that Saddam is finished and that we will not let them down. They have been bitten once (in 1991) and may now be twice shy.

"But it is true that the speed with which Kabul was liberated raised expectations."

What they said

‘Removing Saddam will be a blessing to the Iraqi people’ -- Tony Blair, March 19

‘It is not knowable how long that conflict would last. It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months’ -- Donald Rumsfeld, February 7

‘I really do believe we will be greeted as liberators’ -- Vice-President Dick Cheney

‘If I were a betting man, which I am not -- hopefully (we will be in Baghdad) in the next three or four days’ -- RAF Group Captain Al Lockwood, March 21. (By Day Six US forces were still 60 miles away)

Colin Powell describes progress as remarkable and says the campaign will be successful in ‘the not-too-distant future’ -- March 25

‘Umm Qasr is pretty damn well taken. We are mopping up right now’ -- Captain Rick Crevier, US Marines, Friday March 21. (Royal Marines commandos declared the port secure on Tuesday March 25 after three days of fierce fighting)

Pentagon officials said on Friday March 21 that all 8,000 men in the 51st Iraqi Mechanised Division based in Basra had surrendered. The unit went on fighting. On Tuesday March 25, Donald Rumsfeld said that coalition forces had captured about 3,500 Iraqi prisoners in total

‘We promised this would be the most powerful campaign ever seen, and it will be. It will be unlike any we have seen in the history of warfare, with breathtaking precision, almost eye-watering speed, persistence, agility and lethality" -- Vice-Admiral Timothy Keating, US Navy. By Day Six US forces were bogged down by heavy resistance and bad weather 60 miles south of Baghdad

‘The Iraqi people understand what this crisis is about. Like the people of France in the 1940s, they view us as their hoped-for liberators’ -- Paul Wolfowitz, Deputy Defence Secretary, March 11





Report this post as:

Local News

Change Links September 2018 posted S02 10:22PM

More Scandals Rock Southern California Nuke Plant San Onofre A30 11:09PM

Site Outage Friday A30 3:49PM

Change Links August 2018 A14 1:56AM

Setback for Developer of SC Farm Land A12 11:09PM

More problems at Shutdown San Onofre Nuke J29 10:40PM

Change Links 2018 July posted J09 8:27PM

More Pix: "Families Belong Together," Pasadena J02 7:16PM

"Families Belong Together" March, Pasadena J02 7:08PM

Short Report on the Families Belong Together Protest in Los Angeles J30 11:26PM

Summer 2018 National Immigrant Solidarity Network News Alert! J11 6:58AM

Watch the Debate: Excluded Candidates for Governor of California M31 5:20AM

Change Links June 2018 posted M28 7:41AM

The Montrose Peace Vigil at 12 Years M22 8:01PM

Unity Archive Project M21 9:42AM

Dianne Feinstein's Promotion of War, Secret Animal Abuse, Military Profiteering, Censorshi M17 10:22PM

CA Senate Bill 1303 would require an independent coroner rather than being part of police M10 9:08PM

Three years after OC snitch scandal, no charges filed against sheriffs deputies M10 8:57PM

California police agencies violate Brown Act (open meetings) M02 8:31PM

Insane Company Wants To Send Nuke Plant Waste To New Mexico A29 11:47PM

Change Links May 2018 A27 8:40AM

Worker-Owned Car Wash on Vermont Closed A27 5:37AM

GUIDE TO REBEL CITY LOS ANGELES AVAILABLE A13 12:39AM

lausd whistle blower A11 6:58AM

Website Upgrade A10 10:02AM

Help KCET and UCLA identify 60s-70s Chicano images A04 8:02PM

UCLA Luskin: Casting Youth Justice in a Different Light A02 6:58PM

Change Links April 2018 A01 6:27PM

More Local News...

Other/Breaking News

Addendum: Benjamin Tucker American Mutualist: Tucker Did Not Advocate Voting in Businesses S25 11:45PM

OUR HOUSE Grief Support Center Celebrates 25 Years with the House of Hope Gala S24 7:10PM

Against the Rent Madness and For a Nonprofit Orientation! S24 11:56AM

Cybermonde, cyberguerre, cyberespace, cyberterrorisme S24 6:35AM

Paraphysique de psychosomatique S22 6:58AM

Chuck Grassley: Women Abusing, Animal Murdering, Illegal War Supporting Criminal S22 2:58AM

Finance Capitalism and the Digital Economy S21 4:45PM

Muselières syndicales, muselières patronales S21 7:19AM

Jeff Bezos, Amazon, The Washington Post, Whole Foods, Etc S21 2:50AM

Why Choose Nut Milk Over Cows' Milk S21 1:01AM

Antrhopocène, le grand effondrement S19 9:53AM

Abolir l'économie S18 11:18AM

The Dictatorship of Corporations S17 5:26PM

18 Lethal Consequences Of Hunting S17 3:13PM

Paraphysique de l'outplacement déontologue S15 6:51AM

Shopping du bashing S14 8:42AM

After Lehman Brothers, Experts Say Global Financial Crisis Can Happen Again S13 8:28PM

“Animaniacs in Concert!” Starring Voice Legend Rob Paulsen S12 9:30PM

Probabilités de fin d'humanité S12 6:49AM

Florida Area of Migrant Farmworkers Denied Right to Construct Health Clinic near NaplesCIW S11 2:57AM

Steer clear of work morality! S09 12:10PM

The Shortwave Report 09/07/18 Listen Globally! S06 11:23PM

August 2018 Honduras Coup update S06 12:28PM

Brett Kavanaugh Filled The 5th Circuit With Execution Judges S06 6:14AM

Augusta Georgia Woman Gets 5 Year Prison Sentence for Writing About Russians Crime Acts S05 8:29AM

Paraphysique de contextualité S05 8:29AM

Crisis Regulation in Global Capitalism S03 3:39PM

Ex-voto de réification S03 10:24AM

More Breaking News...
© 2000-2018 Los Angeles Independent Media Center. Unless otherwise stated by the author, all content is free for non-commercial reuse, reprint, and rebroadcast, on the net and elsewhere. Opinions are those of the contributors and are not necessarily endorsed by the Los Angeles Independent Media Center. Running sf-active v0.9.4 Disclaimer | Privacy