Florida Recount -- From Red Rock Eater News Service
Florida Recount Potpourri -- From Red Rock Eater News Service
By Phil Agre
From - Sat Nov 11 17:02:00 2000
[I have enclosed two messages relating to the ongoing recount of
presidential ballots in Florida. The first explains why (among other
things) the manual count should be expected to be more accurate than
the machine count (even if it won't be perfect). I have reformatted
it. The second points to an odd pattern in the recount in Velousia
County. If you look at the recount numbers by county, it really seems
like some of the "recounts" were nothing of the sort -- the numbers in
those cases aren't changing at all, which is not very likely.
Also, everyone needs to be aware of a bad argument:
Recount 'Em All, or None at All
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=65000587
The argument is that Gore is trying an "old statistician's trick",
namely massaging the outcome by cleaning up selected data points and
leaving others alone. Even if this makes the selected points more
accurate, the argument goes, the overall result does not become more
accurate, since errors in the other direction aren't affected. The
consequence, it is argued, is that you can't recount any ballots in
Florida without recounting the whole country. You will probably hear
this argument in the coming days, so it helps to know the fallacies:
(1) Because a national revote is impossible, the suggested consequence
would make it impossible to redress any election irregularity, no
matter how extreme. And the problems with the Florida elections
were clearly not just routine glitches but a complete farce, with
chaos and worse reported in several counties.
(2) The Gore people have asked for much broader recounts than they have
been granted. In particular they have been compelled to pick and
choose particular areas for the recount by hand when they would
clearly prefer a complete recount.
(3) The Bush people have the same legal rights to ask for recounts as
the Gore people, and in fact the Republicans have asked for recounts
in many past elections.
(4) Recounts were done throughout Florida, and even though some of
them were apparently empty exercises, Gore has gained (according
to the unofficial AP survey) something like 1000 votes. This is
not supposed to happen, and we were told that it wouldn't happen, so
clearly something is wrong, and because the recounts were statewide,
the result favoring Gore cannot be a result of the Gore campaign's
picking and choosing. (Why do the recount advantages to Gore argue
for a flawed initial ballot and not a flawed recount? Because the
recount is being carefully monitored by lawyers from both parties.)
Note
On another point, the message by Ben Austin that I sent out last night
turns out to be legitimate. This is the guy whose mother was a precinct
worker in Palm Beach County. The New York Times has a long article on
the situation this morning. I sent it out earlier without flagging it:
Local Officials Say System Fell Apart on Election Day
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/11/11/politics/11PALM.html
Links
Here are more URL's, several of them bearing directly on these issues.
Florida Confusion Has Precedent
http://www.salon.com/politics/wire/2000/11/11/precedent/
NAACP Hears Florida Voting Testimony
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/politics/AP-Recount-NAACP.html
Florida's Election Day Vote Could Be Irrelevant
http://writ.news.findlaw.com/commentary/20001109_katyal.html
cartoon about the Palm Beach ballot
http://www.motherjones.com/comics/tater.html
Police Find Locked Ballot Box at Miami Hotel
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/001111/80/aovym.html
Palm Beach County: Explore Numbers Behind the Controversy
http://www.govspot.com/features/palmbeach.htm
More Florida Ballots Said Disqualified
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/aponline/20001111/aponline130619_000.htm
Election Result Could Swing on Hand Tally Today
http://www.gopbi.com/partners/pbpost/epaper/editions/today/news_2.html
Statistics Point to More Than Random Error in Florida Vote
http://www.lasvegassun.com/sunbin/stories/weds/2000/nov/10/511018638.html
Did Votes Intended for Gore Go to Buchanan?
http://www.indiana.edu/~playpol/pbmodel.pdf
analysis of James Baker's statement on the Florida recount
http://www.bushwatch.com/
Bush Seeks To Block Hand Recounts, Thwarting More Accurate Count
http://la.indymedia.org/display.php3?article_id=4521
Seminole County Delivers Edge to Bush in Recount
http://orlandosentinel.com/elections/1110sem.htm
Again, all the election URL's from this list can be found here:
http://dlis.gseis.ucla.edu/people/pagre/florida.html
We have a list of URL's for regional newspapers in Oregon now, but we
still need New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Iowa, if anybody is looking for
something useful to do.]
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This message was forwarded through the Red Rock Eater News Service (RRE). You are welcome to send the message along to others but please do not use the "redirect" option. For information about RRE, including instructions for (un)subscribing, see http://dlis.gseis.ucla.edu/people/pagre/rre.html
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Sanity In The Election Process
Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 14:42:40 -0800 (PST)
From: PRIVACY Forum
To: PRIVACY-Forum-List@vortex.com
Subject: PRIVACY Forum Digest V09 #24
PRIVACY Forum Digest Saturday, 11 November 2000 Volume 09 : Issue 24
(http://www.vortex.com/privacy/priv.09.24)
Moderated by Lauren Weinstein (lauren@vortex.com)
Vortex Technology, Woodland Hills, CA, U.S.A.
http://www.vortex.com
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Committee on Computers and Public Policy,
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-------------------------------------------------------------------
CONTENTS
Sanity in the Election Process
(Lauren Weinstein and Peter Neumann)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 13:29:47 PST
From: lauren@vortex.com (Lauren Weinstein; PRIVACY Forum Moderator)
Subject: Sanity in the Election Process
Lauren Weinstein
Co-Founder, PFIR - People For Internet Responsibility
Moderator, PRIVACY Forum
Member, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
Peter G. Neumann
Co-Founder, PFIR - People For Internet Responsibility
Moderator, RISKS Forum
Chairman, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
"Sanity in the Election Process"
November 11, 2000
The continuing controversies over the results of the recent U.S.
Presidential election, particularly concerning the vote in Florida,
have now apparently begun to hinge on technical issues relating to
voting systems and ballots, especially in terms of machine vs. manual
recounts, voting irregularities, voter confusion and complaints, and
other related issues.
We feel that several critical points are being misunderstood or
misrepresented by some parties to these controversies, particularly in
light of Governor George W. Bush's campaign having taken federal court
actions attempting to block manual recounts of the vote in several
Florida counties. Regardless of the outcome of those particular court
actions, the following points are crucial to consider.
1) As is well known to election officials and voting system vendors,
but historically not advertised to the public at large, all
voting systems are subject to some degree of error -- electronic
and mechanical systems alike. Punchcard-based systems are
no exception, for which a variety of known problems can occur.
These include poor ballot layout (currently a major issue regarding
the "butterfly" Palm Beach County ballot), machine reading errors
(often relating to incompletely punched ballot selections, usually
in the form of "hanging chad"), paper fatigue, and other problems.
In general, so long as the interested parties both have observers
participating in manual recounts to assure a consensus on the
interpretation and tabulation of the cards, manual recounts provide
the MOST reliable mechanism for counting these cards accurately,
particularly due to the common hanging chad problem which often
reads as "closed" (no vote) when processed through automatic
reading machines. Indeed, manual counting is still prevalent today
in England and Germany.
It is true that manual recounts tend to boost the number of votes
counted, again due to hanging chad and other problems noted above.
This suggests that if concerns are present regarding the fairness
of a manual recount only in particular counties, the obvious
solution is to manually recount in ALL Florida counties, and to
manually count ALL votes (not just a sampling). Yes, this will
be slow, and potentially expensive. But if the will of voters
is not to be subjugated to technical flaws over which they have no
control, this would be the only fair course.
2) While all voting systems have "normal" error rates, these errors
typically are not of great significance so long as the margin
of victory is significantly larger than the error rate, which is
usually the case. However, this does NOT suggest that systemic
errors in the voting process are of insignificance and can simply
be discarded in close elections where the error rate DOES matter.
In particular, the Palm Beach situation from the VERY START of
election day showed all the earmarks of systemic problems. Voters
complained of ballot confusion in great numbers, harried precinct
workers provided conflicting and apparently often inaccurate
information to voters about the ability or inability to correct
spoiled ballots or other ballot errors, and warnings regarding
the confusing ballot situation failed to even reach all affected
precincts, among other obvious problems. These problems occurred
all through election day in Palm Beach County. The statistically
anomalous results of the voting in that area regarding votes
received by the Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan would appear to
further validate this analysis -- the dramatic vote skew observed
clearly does not result from "normal" voting errors that can be
reasonably discounted or ignored.
Unlike the typical error rate expected in most elections where
significant quantities of voter complaints are not received, the
Palm Beach situation, with its extremely atypical and alarming set
of complaints and problems throughout election day, would appear
to put those votes in a category that cannot be simply swept under
the rug, and that appear to be deserving of immediate redress,
adjustment, and/or revoting. These widespread voting problems
in Palm Beach County were clearly not the fault of "inept"
or "moronic" elderly voters, as some persons have arrogantly
suggested.
3) Attempts to short-circuit the process of correcting the injustices
and technical problems discussed above, through calls for rapid
"closure" or the simple accepting of inaccurate and unjust results
(particularly in Palm Beach County) "for the sake of the country"
should be rejected.
We should not attempt to resolve this situation through quick
"solutions" or calls for concessions. These same issues would be
present even if the candidates' current positions were reversed.
The critical questions shouldn't even be focused on the candidates
at all, but rather on the VOTERS themselves, who appear to
have been shortchanged by technical issues, procedural problems
not under their control, and now by attempts by politicians
to hurriedly dispose of this mess through vague references to
the public good -- a route that would leave the affected voters
effectively disenfranchised.
There are two efforts that need to take place. First, the problems
of this particular election, as discussed above, need to be dealt with
in a deliberate and fair fashion. If that involves courts, manual
recounts, and revoting, both inside and perhaps outside Florida, so be
it -- they're all part of the procedures that we have in place. Let's
get it right -- we should not be treating voters as disposable peons.
If we do not take a proper course, whoever ends up in the White House
will be viewed by at least half of the U.S. population, and probably
much of the world, as not wholly legitimate.
Secondly, we need to look long and hard at the election process
around this country, taking note that calls for radical departures
from current widely-used systems must be viewed with extreme care
and skepticism. In particular, Internet voting must be considered to
be extremely problematic (please see the PFIR Statement on Internet
Voting - http://www.pfir.org/statements/voting, and "Hacking the Vote"
- http://www.vortex.com/reality/2000-11-08). One major reason to
look skeptically upon these hi-tech systems is that their potential
reduction in voter privacy and lack of rigorous audit trails fail to
allow true recounts to occur when the integrity of the voting process
is called into question, and such questions can arise in electronic as
well as mechanical voting environments.
We stand at a crossroads where the existence of fundamental flaws in
our election system have finally been exposed to the public. It is
no longer tenable for the powers that be, with a gentleman's agreement
or a nod and a wink, to steamroll over these flaws -- and the will
of voters -- for the sake of convenience and expediency. We can
start down the path toward ensuring genuine fairness and integrity
in the voting process by making sure that the election of last Tuesday
is resolved in a manner that not only serves the candidates, but more
importantly the will of the voters themselves.
= = = =
Lauren Weinstein
lauren@pfir.org
(818) 225-2800
Co-Founder, PFIR - People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org
Moderator, PRIVACY Forum - http://www.vortex.com
Member, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
Peter G. Neumann
neumann@pfir.org
(650) 859-2375
Co-Founder, PFIR - People For Internet Responsibility - http://www.pfir.org
Moderator, RISKS Forum - http://catless.ncl.ac.uk/Risks
Chairman, ACM Committee on Computers and Public Policy
http://www.csl.sri.com/neumann
************************
Skewed Recount Results In Volusia County
Date: Sat, 11 Nov 2000 15:58:53 -0500 (EST)
From: Lee Campbell
Subject: Re: Skewed county results in recount ([RRE]Florida recount)
I saw your note about recount oddities on RRE. I have another oddity
to add to it: the numbers in Volusia County.
Below are all the tallies before the recount (from CNN) and after
the recount (from volusia.org). What's odd here is that the minor
candidates received 9003 votes before the recount but only 3979 after
the recount, and almost all their totals are different, but the Bush
and Gore totals didn't change. If the minor candidates changed that
much, it seems really odd that the major candidates would have zero
change.
According to the numbers, Nader gained a few hundred, Pat Buchanan
gained 100, while Browne lost 85% of his votes, and Phillips lost 99%.
Meanwhile, the Bush & Gore totals remained precisely unchanged.
- Lee Campbell
elwc031@media.mit.edu
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From: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/FL/index8.7.html
VOLUSIA Nov. 7 100% of precincts
Candidates Votes Vote % EV
Gore 97,063 49 % 0
Bush 82,214 42 % 0
Browne 3,211 2 %
0
Phillips 2,927 2 % 0
Nader 2,436 2 % 0
Buchanan 396 1 % 0
Hagelin 33 1 % 0
no winner declared
results as of 8:38 p.m. EST, 11/8
From: http://www.volusia.org/11-8c-00.htm
November 8, 2000
Holly Smith
Community Information Specialist
CANVASSING BOARD COMPLETES RECOUNT
The Canvassing Board for Volusia County's general election
completed the state mandated recount of the Presidential vote
at 8 p.m., Wednesday, November 8. There were no changes in
the unofficial returns in the Presidential race.
Volusia's results show:
Al Gore -- 97,063 votes.
George Bush -- 82,214 votes.
Harry Browne -- 442 votes.
Ralph Nader -- 2,903 votes.
James Harris -- 8 votes.
John Hagelin -- 36 votes.
Pat Buchanan -- 496 votes.
David McReynolds -- 5 votes.
Howard Phillips -- 20 votes.
Monica Moorehead -- 69 votes.
The results of the Canvassing Board's recount were provided
to the State Department of Elections Wednesday evening.
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