Can an offer from the West bring peace to Ukraine?

The stronger should give in and make a peace offer!

by Urs P. Gasche

Europe watches the horror indignantly instead of trying to end the war with a reasonable offer.

[This article published on 3/8/2022 is translated from the German on the Internet, Der Stärkere soll nachgeben und ein Friedensangebot machen! - infosperber.]

Ukraine is being crushed

British ex-general Richard Barrons, NZZaS 6.3.2022

The consequences of war are dead, injured, displaced, destroyed lives, social communities torn apart, broken infrastructures and homes, misery and years of revenge.

Yet no one stops this terrible war. It is unbearable to watch.

No matter how much aid and weapons are delivered to Ukraine and even the drastic sanctions do not stop the Russian army nor do they save the population from immeasurable suffering.

NATO cannot stop the Russians militarily, either on the ground or in the air. A direct confrontation with Russia would be too dangerous. For the Ukrainian population, this is a catastrophe.

Meetings and telephone calls with President Putin give the impression that Western politicians are doing everything humanly possible for peace. But these talks lead nowhere, because NATO still rejects Putin's demand for a NATO-free Ukraine. Maximum demands face maximum demands.

Making a serious attempt

By making concessions to Russia, the U.S., Europe and Ukraine could make a serious attempt to end the war immediately. It would then be up to Putin to back down from his maximum demands as well.

As the far stronger side, the West can take an important step toward accommodating him without jeopardizing the security of Europe and Ukraine: Ukraine should become a neutral country that neither belongs to an alliance nor tolerates heavy weapons on its territory. Such an offer to Russia, combined with an immediate cease-fire, would be long overdue. Whether it would end the war is not certain. But Putin would see an important demand met and could save face.

No country has a right to join NATO. That's because all NATO countries must agree to a country's accession. NATO would now have to rule out Ukraine joining. This is not an unreasonable concession when it comes to stopping the misery and misery of this war. On the contrary, it is merely a renunciation of a Ukrainian desire that cannot be enforced in the foreseeable future anyway.

Perhaps Putin would have relented before launching his war of aggression if the European NATO partners had not constantly and stubbornly maintained that Ukraine, like any other country, had the right to join the military alliance. But that opportunity was lost.

Now it's a matter of trying to end the war and avoid further devastating damage. "The strongest gives in," is something you learn as a child. Fear of losing face and prestige must never be a reason to try to end a war. An opponent must be allowed to save face. Whether Putin would give in remains open, of course.

The vast majority of the Ukrainian population would certainly prefer peace under the condition of neutrality today than to watch their country being destroyed and falling under Russian influence.

A neutral Ukraine can choose a Western form of society. The fate of Crimea and the Donbass can be resolved democratically with monitored votes on various future options.

The West does not have to watch the horror without alternatives

Attempting a settlement is an imperative. For the immediate and longer-term consequences of the war are massive.

There is enormous sympathy for the Ukrainian population, exposed to bombs and fleeing en masse. But no matter how open the borders and how great the willingness to help millions of refugees, this war and the destruction of Ukraine cannot be stopped.

Putting Putin in the corner of a demon and psychopath does not stop the war, but reinforces the false impression that the West is condemned to stand idly by and watch the war continue.

The extent of the misery is demonstrated daily by the media. It is almost unbearable that the Western governments, supposedly without any alternative, just stand by and watch. It is also rationally incomprehensible that the offer of a neutral, Western-oriented Ukraine should be too high a price to pay. Of course, Putin would have to give in. But for him to give in, the offer must first be on the table.

Ukraine would get a chance to be spared from further consequences of this war. And humanity would get a chance to be saved from incalculable collateral damage of a prolonged war.

If the West does not make an offer and Putin does not give in

Catastrophes for countless people:

Several thousand dead and even more injured.

Millions of refugees and separated families.

The infrastructure of a huge country destroyed.

Major Ukrainian cities risk being bombed and destroyed as in Grozny, Chechnya, Aleppo, Syria, or Mossul, Iraq.

Uncontrollable risks:

Climate Crisis

Instead of pooling all forces and sufficient resources for measures against the threatening climate crisis, billions and billions are spent on war, destruction and reconstruction.

Sharp rise in wheat prices

They may lead to hunger, uprisings and even more refugees in North Africa. North Africa gets more than half of its grain needs from Russia and Ukraine (source: Syngenta).

Sharp increases in heating oil, gas and gasoline prices

In the USA, they can lead to election losses for the Democrats, making President Biden a Lame Duck. In Europe, oil, gas and gasoline can fuel inflation to the point that some countries are politically reeling.

The crisis-prone financial system

The FED and European Central Bank (ECB) may be forced to raise interest rates. This drives some countries and some financial institutions to ruin - with unforeseeable political and social consequences.

Armament

Instead of negotiating disarmament, Western Europe is rearming tremendously - to the delight of the military-industrial complex in the U.S. and Europe.

All these uncontrollable risks must be worth an attempt to make Russia the offer of a neutral Ukraine, free of heavy weapons.