THE END GAME

Energy versus climate. The price of oil wakens nuclear desires

By Elmar Altvater

[This article published in: Freitag 24, 6/13/2008 is translated from the German on the World Wide Web, http://www.freitag.de/2008/24/08240101.php.]




At the beginning of the soccer marathon, we are in our own finals or end game: energy is matched politically against climate – not only on account of the record oil price. Three events show this. In the official visit of the new Russian president Dmitri Medwedjew and Angela Merkel agreed on convincing construction of the Baltic Sea pipeline. The chancellor held to a line that already animated or inspired her during the EU (European Union) council presidency in 2007: fossil energy security has the highest priority. 90 percent of the “net growth” promised in the 2005 coalition agreement will be driven by fossil energy. However oil and gas must be imported from Russia and other regions of the world.

As the second event, the black-red majority in the Bundestag is active in climate policy. Heat-power coupling should be promoted. The share of renewable energy in the energy mix will double by 2020 and emission of greenhouse gases reduced 40 percent. What is the goal of this short timid step out of CO2-capitalism? The International Energy Agency (IEA) answered this question. This is the third event. The plan revealed on the day the red-black climate pact was resolved was terrific. Up to 40 nuclear power plants should be brought on line every year worldwide – according to the IEA. The fossil age with its production modes, consumer patterns, transportation systems and corporate structures will emerge stronger from the reorganization of the energy system to the globalized nuclear state.

Now we understand what chief IEA economist Fatih Birol meant when he recently urged: “I think we should abandon oil before oil abandons us…” In fact, the peak of oil production lies in the past, not in the distant future. Additional oil can only be brought to market at great cost. At the same time the demand curve points upward. The aspiring industrial powers China and India and other “threshold countries” are just as hungry for energy as the US and the EU.

Frantically seeking unexplored reserves, “un-conventional” oil exists: from the tropical deep sea, the polar cap, the oil sand in Canada and teer in Venezuela but the production costs and environmental burdens are extremely high. The military security of the oil regions and transportation routes make the raw material costly and life more intolerable for people in the oil regions.

For a long time, pipelines and tanker routes to North America, between Europe and Japan had precedence. This is changing. Pipelines are also built in Central Asian “Pipelineistan” to the East. The geo-political situation is also changing with the new infrastructure for raw material logistics. In times of scarce energy resources, the great powers help themselves politically and militarily in Iraq, Sudan, Chad and anywhere (Hindukusch) and no longer trust the market and its “neutral” practical necessity. How the fossil energy regime foments conflicts appears at the end of the energy chain with the consequences of climate change.

Thus the end game could become an absurd game. The military is used for the energy- and raw material supply. The use of fossil energy is jointly responsible for the greenhouse effect. Its consequences – unusual weather, droughts, floods, crop failures and species extinction – force people to migrate. The military is also mobilized against this as today at the borders of “Fortress Europe.”

The new nuclear bride of the fossil energy politician promises sheer joy about this crash. Inste4ad of “Nuclear Power, No Thanks.” It is only a question of time until the German government pulls out the nuclear card again in the game of climate against energy. So energy policy is made with loud words and climate policy with a half-heart. The dedication is great – the future of humanity is at stake.

If we disregard the limited uranium reserves, dismiss the maximum credible accident as insignificant and trivialize concern about the final disposal of radioactive waste, the danger of proliferation and resulting conflicts remains. Thus intervention in the end game between climate and energy is peace in the world. Therefore the exodus from the fossil energy regime and ascent in the economy of renewables is pressing. This exodus may not be an entrance in a nuclear energy regime since that could lead to catastrophe. No one can exclude a new Chernobyl with 1300 new nuclear reactors by 2050.