Poll: Clinton looks good for '06, so-so for '08

By JOHN MACHACEK

WASHINGTON BUREAU

By the numbers

A majority of New York's registered voters said they would vote to re-elect Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton in the fall, but fewer than half would like to see her run for president in 2008, according to a new Marist poll.

(Original publication: January 31, 2006)

WASHINGTON — Most New York voters say they would re-elect Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, but they're split over whether she should run for president in 2008, according to a new poll.

The survey conducted last week by the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion found Clinton gaining in popularity statewide and clobbering former Yonkers Mayor John Spencer, now the only major Republican figure looking to challenge her.

Some key measurements include

• 48 percent, including 51 percent of those not enrolled in a political party, liked Clinton more than they did two years ago. Her job approval rating remained at 54 percent, virtually unchanged in more than a year.

• 54 percent, including 52 percent of independents, say they would definitely vote for her re-election. She leads Spencer, who is seeking the nomination of both the Republican and Conservative parties, 62 percent to 33 percent.

• 49 percent said they don't want Clinton to run for president while just 41 percent hope to see her enter the race. Ten percent are unsure about what she should do.

"It's really a very mixed picture for her in terms of presidential aspirations and a send-off from New York at this point," said Lee Miringoff, Marist's polling director. "Right now, people are positive about her Senate role. She has a little bit of convincing job here in her home state should she decide to run (for president.)"

Although 59 percent thought she would run, 62 percent believe it is unlikely she could win.

Voters divide along partisan lines on the question of Clinton's potential presidential candidacy. While 55 percent of Democrats are giving her the green light, most Republicans do not and independents are evenly divided.

Miringoff said New York Democrats, generally a more liberal group, may be cool to a Clinton bid for the White House because they are displeased by her vote for the Iraq war and her rhetorical efforts to move to the political middle. Still, 46 percent of New York voters describe Clinton as liberal while only 38 percent see her as a political moderate.

"Her comments about Bush being one of the worst presidents in history aren't accidental," Miringoff said. "She was trying to spike up some of the core Democratic support."

Clinton's camp said it was pleased by the poll, but did not comment on how it characterized support for a potential presidential candidacy.

"We are pleased that so many New Yorkers continue to strongly approve of the job Senator Clinton is doing for New York," said Howard Wolfson, a Clinton adviser.

Spencer's office didn't return calls for comment. The poll was conducted from Tuesday to Thursday of last week and completed on the day that Manhattan lawyer Edward Cox, a son-in-law of President Nixon's, announced he would not re-enter the race. That left Spencer as the GOP's likely challenger.

The poll found 53 percent of the state's registered Republican voters undecided about the person their party should nominate. Spencer and Cox were each supported by 14 percent of the Republican sample.

The poll of 854 registered voters (357 Democrats and 261 Republicans) has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Make bumper stickers and put these on your car.