US Before the Third Iraq War

Specialist for Military Strategy analyzes “Errors” of the Occupying Power and offers Depressing Prognoses

By Rainer Rupp

[This article originally published in: junge Welt, August 4, 2003 is translated from the German on the World Wide Web, http://www.jungewelt.de/public_php/drucken_popup.php?num=6&djahr…]

The US supreme commander in Iraq, General John Abizaid, spoke recently of a “classical guerilla war”. A few days ago, Anthony H. Cordesman, renowned Middle East expert and specialist for military strategy at the “Center for Strategic and International Studies” (CSIS), named the culprits: the poor planning of the Pentagon on “ending the conflict” and on Iraqi “nation-building”. The US has not learned from comparable situations in the past that “the best military victories cannot win the peace”.

In his detailed study on the mistakes of the US – for example the belief that Saddam Hussein’s overthrow alone would win the “hearts and minds” of the Iraqis -, Cordesman develops a series of scenarios on future developments in Iraq. “Most likely a half-hearted and poorly coordinated effort at nation-building to bring Iraq on a better political and economic path while a climate prevails in which security is constantly threatened on a lower level and serious ethnic and sectarian tensions dominate.” “The situation must quickly and radically improve to meet that standard. Otherwise the US at the end will wage a third Gulf war, this time against the Iraqi people.”

The conduct of the American occupying power suggests that the same mistakes are made that belong to the “worst-possible scenario” according to Cordesman’s analysis. Instead of forming an “Iraq for Iraqis” with the genuine support of all classes of the Iraqi population, “the US wants to build an Iraq according to its own image” according to the CSIS strategy. Progress in governmental and economic reconstruction is very slow. Many promises have not been kept.

Security doesn’t exist on the communal plane. Well-meaning reforms either didn’t generally function or took effect much too late to engender gratitude. The US and its allies sought “the leaders they wanted instead of those the Iraqis wanted” for the administration. Increasingly they rely on persons returning from exile who had no support in the indigenous population.

The US encountering the guerilla danger by “acting as occupiers instead of liberators” is one of the striking errors. The US armed forces barricaded in their protected bases only enlarged the distance to the Iraqi population. Even the Sunnites who were against Saddam demanded the withdrawal of the occupation troops. “The same pattern of a resistance ready for violence as in Sunnite central Iraq exists in the Shiite South. By doing everything to keep the religious representatives of the Shiites from power, “they alienate the majority of the Shiite population who in the past more or less tolerated without supporting the US/UK military presence.”

In northern Iraq the tensions between different sectarian groups are also mounting. While the Kurds altogether supported the US occupation, the old struggle for power over disappearing revenues from smuggling and the “oil-for-food program” is flaring up again between the Kurdish fractions. At the same time the Kurdish claim to power in northern Iraq made possible by the US creates ill-will among the Sunnites and Turkmenians and leads to tensions between the US and Turkey.

In this situation, according to Cordesman, “the US and its allies do what is right from a technocratic and scientific perspective while the mistrust of the Iraqis intensifies.” If the US fails, “this could become a war against the Iraqi people”. In any event, this kind of “asymmetrical war” cannot be won.

Mr. Bush needs to be taken off his high horse by none other than the American people, whom he lies to consistantly.

Its ok for Mr. Bush, he comes from a bloodline worth billions (old money-oil), while the majority of Americans will never own their own home. The elderly and youth of America have been ignored by Mr. Bush and his administration, who is more concerned with International appeal than domestic issues. He is really no better than Saddam Hussien, because they are all killers.

I hope that the American people don't allow Mr. Bush to ruin their country by provoking terrorism, and trying to run everybodys business. (He is a greedy bird)

Its the everyday American citizen who will suffer most in the New World Order, its their brothers/sisters/mothers/fathers coming home in body bags from the middle east not Mr. Bush's family.

And while many Americans bury their loved ones and know just how much they've lost, Mr. Bush will be clad in a flight jacket on the deck of another carrier boasting that he wants to help the people of the next resourse filled nation so that he can take whats there too, considering it has extreme international value.

I've got one question for G.W.Bush, Who made you and your administration the dictators of right and wrong is this world?

Mind your own business, take care of your schools, hospitals and citizens, half of your propaganda and war budget would fix each and every school and hospital in the nation. Maybe Mr. Bush should tell his people that statistic.

It's these others around us in growing discomforture, yet sleeping still.

They will awake soon.

Honey, you are being rude and un american.

You also forgot to mention when you posted:

8. Repeatedly violating the terms of your cease-fire and many UN resolutions.

5. Illegally invading your neighbor.

(you forgot to mention President Bush and his violation of Article 6 of the US constitution)

I'll have to pick you up a copy at the A&P.

also dear, i dont mean to be so curt, but you also forgot to mention when you posted:

9. Attempted genocide of ethnic goups in your country.

( I guess you didnt read that article i gave you on Native American Genocide 1600-1899)...(and i wont even mention the Tuskeegee Experiment) or (Manzanar)

also baby, that thing with the post.

4. Diverting billions of dollars' worth of oil profits, intended to provide food and medicine to your people, to build palaces.

Well there, the President here isnt building any Palaces (dont count the Texas Ranch)

I mean, you didnt even tell us where the OIL PROFITS GO from the US CORPORATIONs?

Do they go to buy food and medicine for the poor people here?

Ya know , when you make these statements hubby, everyone just thinks that you are ill-informed on politics, and you just look like an asshole.

Now take your Viagra and come to bed.

ps baby

you might want to read about the world bank and the international monetary fund.

Honey, i told you to quit being an asshole.

You didnt even respond to my questions.

I understand your in love with Bush ( a failure) and only support him because Fox news likes him.

ps

I'm having sex with the mexican gardener.

What a brainwashed moron, heres your sack lunch so you can go to your job at HOt Dog on a stick

Puddin'Head: "The real Mrs. Wilson is smart, beautiful and funny. "

.....and married to some other Mr. Wilson....