We're all on this huge Glomart Express train going down these Hydrocarbon Economy tracks. The train's energy comes from the tracks. We're accelerating at 2% per year and have been for quite some time. We're going really fast now. The tracks look OK, and the ride feels OK, but every now and then there's a bump, or a sway...

The government and energy divisions of Glomart that own the tracks tell us not to worry about those bumps and sways. But the Glomart government divisions don't always have good information about the condition of their tracks, and the Glomart energy divisions don't want people to know what they know about the condition of their tracks.

The overall reporting function on track conditions is handled by little groups of Glomart bureaucrats (mostly economists, not engineers or geologists) in Washington and Paris who gather pieces of paper and computer files with numbers on them from the Glomart owners, and then make guesses about the condition of the tracks. So far their attitude has been "No worries! Full speed ahead!"

Nevertheless, some sections of the tracks are beginning to show their age. This is not surprising since most of the tracks were laid down many decades ago and have never been replaced. They had a lot of wear and tear even before the days of the Glomart Express, and now it's much worse because the Express is so huge and so fast.

There are rumors about a gully, a valley, and perhaps even a precipice that the tracks must cross, but they haven't been laid there yet. The Glomart economists (not engineers or geologists) usually tell us those rumors are false and those obstacles don't exist. Sometimes they tell us that "We'll cross that bridge when we come to it." It's confusing.

Meanwhile, the track crews aren't laying the tracks nearly as fast as the Glomart Express is moving. We're moving about four times as fast as they're laying the tracks up ahead. Some folks with sharp eyes up on the observation deck in the dome car think they can see the end of the tracks way off in the distance...

To calm their fears, executives at Glomart have issued statements on the PA system about how they're developing a new kind of track called the New Hydrogen Economy track that will make the Hydrocarbon Economy track obsolete and unnecessary. They say the models are pretty much theoretical at this point, but lots of Glomart economists are hard at work, and "Not to worry!"

The Glomart executives add that their Glomart economists are surveying the road bed ahead for these new tracks ("Tinkerbelle Tracks" according to skeptics) over Natural Gas Crisis Gully, Oil Crisis Valley, and Coal Crisis Precipice - even though other Glomart economists say those obstacles don't exist. This little contradiction is starting to make some passengers on the train a bit nervous.

There's some fighting up ahead too. People living near the tracks in some areas don't like the plans of the Glomart economists. Unfortunately for those people, the military divisions of Glomart are more than happy to help out the Glomart economists with personnel and all varieties of lethal hardware. The government divisions of Glomart are happy to help out with money.

One persistent rumor has it that the precipice up ahead is at the edge of the ocean, and the Glomart economists are working on designs for tracks that will float. These designs apparently have lots of extra postulates. There's something in the designs about Glomart nuclear reactors that will provide the energy to overcome the laws of thermodynamics for those tracks.

Some anxious passengers think that if they could persuade the Glomart executives to slow down the train, the bumps and sways wouldn't be so worrisome, and maybe the track laying crews could get further ahead. But the execs have so far refused to listen to those passengers.

A few passengers are thinking they'd rather not wait to find out what happens when the train catches up with the track laying crews, or comes to the gully, or the valley, or the precipice. They're thinking of taking their chances and jumping off now, and fending for themselves in the forest. But most passengers are too busy buying, selling, eating, drinking, talking, sleeping, etc.

All the while in the background is the sound of clickety-clack, clikety-clack, clickety-clack, clikety-clack, clickety-clack, clikety-clack, clickety-clack, clikety-clack, clickety-clack, clikety-clack, clickety-clack, clikety-clack, clickety-clack, clikety-clack, clickety-clack...

Karl Davies

Northampton, MA, USA

PS: If this little parable doesn't make any sense, go to these web sites to find eyes to see and ears to hear:

http://www.oilcrisis.org

http://www.dieoff.org/synopsis.htm

http://www.runningonempty.org