The sanctions will hit people hard. In Russia, the domestic political climate has already intensified. Putin will pay a domestic political price for this. Anyone born in 2000 consciously knows only Vladimir Putin as Russian president.
Putin biographer on Ukraine war: 'Conflicts will last for a long time'
Interview with Hubert Seipel
[This interview published on 3/10/2022 is translated from the German on the Internet, Putin-Biograf zum Ukraine-Krieg: „Die Konflikte werden noch lange dauern“.]
Glimmers of hope in the war: reports of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are increasing. But where can they lead? Hubert Seipel in an interview.
Kiev - The situation in the Ukraine war remains dramatic - and thus highly emotional. A sober view of the events is difficult, but necessary when it comes to the question of possible solutions. Recently, there have been growing indications that a meeting between Russia and Ukraine is imminent. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his counterpart Dmytro Kuleba want to start direct negotiations on the future of Ukraine.
Ukraine war: Vladimir Putin's biographer sees only one way out in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia
But where can these talks lead, what would be realistic possibilities for an end to the war at the moment? In an interview with kreiszeitung.de, renowned journalist and Putin biographer Hubert Seipel gave his assessment. With a view to the situation in Ukraine, Seipel currently sees only one solution: as far as Vladimir Putin is concerned, he believes he will have to pay a high price for the Ukraine war in terms of domestic politics as well.
Mr. Seipel, do you see a solution to the Ukraine conflict? If so, what might it look like?
The price of the conflict will be a neutral status for Ukraine like Austria or Finland once had after World War II, plus the autonomy of the Donbass. This will hit Ukraine itself very hard and the conflicts will continue for a very long time. But I don't see any other solution at the moment. We have taken the matter too lightly.
In what way?
We have to ask ourselves whether we didn't see that this country would be overwhelmed if it had to choose between Europe and Russia; whether we underestimated the determination of Russia, which is closely linked to Ukraine economically, but also historically emotionally. In 2013, then-Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier had put this on record, and he was right.
A Ukraine flag with a "Peace" sign in the middle can be seen. Ukraine war: For a peace in Ukraine, the renowned journalist and Putin biographer Hubert Seipel currently sees only one solution. (Symbol image)
Ukrainians show a lot of patriotism and national pride in the fight against the overpowering Russian military. How likely do you think a long-term occupation of Ukraine by Russia is? Is Putin even threatened with a long-lasting trouble spot in the form of a resistance movement?
That there will be resistance is shown not only by the reports of American or British mercenaries being recruited that are currently doing the rounds. But there will also be many Ukrainians who are Western-oriented. That is the political explosive. Nevertheless, from my assessment, there is probably no other solution for the near future to de-escalate. What Tolstoy said over a hundred years ago applies. Everyone wants to change the world, but no one wants to change himself. Not even Putin.
What chance of real self-determination can there be for Ukraine between Russia and the West in the future?
None in the foreseeable future, as I see the situation.
Hubert Seipel on the Ukraine war: "The biggest problem in life is reality".
"Putin-understanding" was considered a defamation even before Russia's war of aggression in Ukraine. There can be no understanding for the military aggression, but: Is it possible in the serious interest of peace to avoid dealing with the Russian positions and how they came about?
Understanding is the journalistic prerequisite for a rational discussion of interests and the reasons and goals of others. That does not mean that you share them. If you only make professions of faith because you're on the right side, you can forget your job. And if you confuse posturing with putting on a steel helmet and going into the journalistic trenches so as not to be considered a collaborator, you may have a more comfortable life and feel good about yourself, but have missed the job.
Pictures from the war trigger horror and rage in me as well. One is powerless against it, however, these emotions cannot exclude the question how and why it could come so far. A few months ago, ARD put the film "Living and Dying for Kabul" from 2009 back into the program, when the Americans shocked us by simply withdrawing from Afghanistan without asking us as allies. I had already predicted then that we were wrong in defending our freedom in the Hindu Kush and that we would not win either.
Journalist Hubert Seipel pokes his head in with Russia's President Vladimir Putin at a book presentation.
Renowned journalist and author of several books: Hubert Seipel in 2016 together with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.
So what does that mean in concrete terms?
I can't do much with the idea that says: whoever doubts our position is a traitor and works for the enemy. The biggest problem in life is reality, an English analyst wrote. And it hurts, but that's why you can't lose yourself exclusively in indignation, because you believe you're on the right side.
Ukraine conflict: sanctions hit Russia hard - "Putin will pay a domestic price".
In war, there is always talk of a defensive war. The narrative is similar with Putin and his war of aggression. What are the reactions to the war in Russia, how much is this narrative followed?
War is always a taboo-breaker. The narrative that each side is fighting a battle that was forced on you by the other side is the justification on both sides for the situation, which was predictable not just since the Maidan overthrow. Until just before the war, Putin was still by far the most popular politician, with 73 percent. The sanctions will hit people hard. In Russia, the domestic political climate has already intensified. Putin will pay a domestic political price for this. Anyone born in 2000 consciously knows only Vladimir Putin as Russian president. His image abroad is irreparable anyway, at least since the Maidan upheaval and the Crimean crisis.
What possibilities are there for an end to the war in which all sides, including Putin, would save face?
Only one for the foreseeable future: Ukraine's neutrality.
Not only are wars always a taboo, they also virtually only know losers among a large part of the population - the Ukraine war is no exception. On the path that Hubert Seipel outlines, there is no room for Ukraine's actual self-determination between Russia and the West for the time being; the situation is deadlocked. The currently planned talks between the two parties to the conflict are a small glimmer of hope for peace in a situation that is unlikely to end with a satisfactory solution for Ukrainians - and probably for a long time.
Hubert Seipel is a German journalist and award-winning documentary filmmaker. A political scientist, he wrote for Stern magazine and worked for Der Spiegel as a foreign correspondent. He conducted the world's first television interview with whistleblower Edward Snowden, which ARD broadcast in January 26, 2014. The journalist has already written several books about Vladimir Putin. (This is part one of a two-part interview) * kreiszeitung.de is a service of IPPEN.MEDIA
Putin biographer on the Ukraine war: "The conflicts will last for a long time".
Glimmers of hope in the war: reports of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are increasing. But where can they lead? Hubert Seipel in an interview. [...]
In an interview with kreiszeitung.de, renowned journalist and Putin biographer Hubert Seipel gave his assessment. With regard to the situation in Ukraine, Seipel currently sees only one solution: as far as Vladimir Putin is concerned, he believes he will have to pay a high price for the Ukraine war in terms of domestic politics as well.
Mr. Seipel, do you see a solution to the Ukraine conflict? If so, what might it look like?
The price of the conflict will be a neutral status for Ukraine like Austria or Finland once had after World War II, plus the autonomy of the Donbass. This will hit Ukraine itself very hard and the conflicts will continue for a very long time. But I don't see any other solution at the moment. We have taken the matter too lightly.
In what way?
We have to ask ourselves whether we didn't see that this country would be overwhelmed if it had to choose between Europe and Russia; whether we underestimated the determination of Russia, which is closely linked to Ukraine economically, but also historically emotionally. In 2013, then-Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier had put this on record, and he was right.
https://marcbatko.academia.edu
Original: Putin biographer on the Ukraine war