{"article":{"id":294202,"heading":"The Consequences of a Trump Shock","author":"Simon Johnson","created":"2016-11-06 22:00:27","modified":"2016-11-10 03:29:58","last_modified":"Thu, 10 Nov 2016 10:29:58","article":"

The Consequences of a Trump Shock

by Simon Johnson, Oct 29, 2016

http:\/\/project-syndicate.us10.list-manage2.com\/track\/click?u=9116789a51839e0f88fa29b83&id=3b6296706c&e=2b69dfa017<\/a>

Trump promises to boost US growth immediately to 4-5%, but this is pure fantasy. It is far more likely that his anti-trade policies would cause a sharp slowdown, much like the British are experiencing.

In fact, the impact of a Trump victory on the US could well be worse. Whereas British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government wants to close the UK’s borders to immigrants from the EU, it does want trade with the world. Trump, on the other hand, is determined to curtail imports through a variety of policies, all of which are well within the power of a president. He would not need congressional approval to slam the brakes on the US economy.

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Even in the best of times, US policymakers often do not think enough about the impact of their actions on the rest of the world. Trump’s trade-led recession would tip Europe back into full-blown recession, which would likely precipitate a serious banking crisis. If this risk were not contained – and the probability of a European banking debacle is already disconcertingly high – there would be a further negative spiral. Either way, the effects on emerging markets and all lower-income countries would be dramatic.

Investors in the stock market currently regard a Trump presidency as a relatively low-probability development. But, while the precise consequences of bad policies are always hard to predict, if investors are wrong and Trump wins, we should expect a big markdown in expected future earnings for a wide range of stocks – and a likely crash in the broader market.<\/p>\n","contact":"marc1seed@yahoo.com","link":"www.freembtranslations.net","address":"","phone":"","parent_id":0,"mime_type":"text\/plain","summary":"Now is a good time to ask whether the global economy is in good enough shape to withstand another major negative shock. The answer, unfortunately, is that growth and employment around the world look fragile. A big adverse surprise \u2013 like the election of Donald Trump in the US \u2013 would likely cause the stock market to crash...","numcomment":2,"fileurl":"\/uploads\/","filesize":null,"article_url":"\/news\/2016\/11\/294202.php"},"attachments":[],"comments":[{"id":294214,"heading":"Weren't there irregulatiries in some states?","article":" Since Trump only gained 276 electoral votes (270 are necessary), why can't irregularities be found in some states? I'm translating German articles on Nine Ways US elections can be manipulated. Check out Glenn Greenwald on The Intercept.\r\n\r\n Baseball decisions can be challenged. Procedural justice can't be suspended on Election Day.\r\n\r\n Corporate media gave Trump free Wall-to-Wall publicity for a year!\r\n\r\nwww.foreffectivegov.org","author":"marc","parent_id":294202,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2016-11-09 21:15:41","modified":"2016-11-09 21:15:41","fileurl":""},{"id":294216,"heading":"finishing what Merkel started","article":"What nobody seems to acknowledge is that The Woman who would be President permanently destroyed the FemiNazi movement last night.\r\n\r\nThe one who would be leader of the free world, the one who would have to face down the Enemy for the rest of us, couldn't even face her own people on Election Night. In the face of adversity she instead stayed home and blubbered and threw ashtrays.\r\n\r\nWomen simply don't have the psychological makeup to run the world. Ruin it, yes, but not run it.","author":"JoJo Gunn idVer:2f7334c241294b760fa036094d8a7","parent_id":294202,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2016-11-10 03:29:58","modified":"2016-11-27 20:03:01","fileurl":""}]}