{"article":{"id":255383,"heading":"Assad\u2019s fall will renew the Arab spring","author":"Phil","created":"2012-09-05 09:33:44","modified":"2013-11-11 01:11:13","last_modified":"Mon, 11 Nov 2013 08:11:13","article":"

The Syrian people rose up for their own reasons. Syria's circumstances and Bashar al-Assad's tyranny have a history and a geography that well justified hard-headed calculations by the US, Britain, France and many other countries that they should seize this opportunity to help the rebels get rid of this particular demented regime.

And much of the conventional wisdom in recent weeks has been that the Arab spring is turning into a dreary summer. Not so dreary. Assad's fall will renew a sense of momentum. The struggle in Syria, slowly escalating, will move even more into the foreground. Much of the drive in Arab spring policymaking is currently coming from the Persian Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. It is their hour. The Saudi government is playing a critical role in the Arab diplomacy now isolating Syria.

The UAE, with the Saudis, came up with the funds that allowed Egypt’s interim rulers to hold off the conditional packages being offered by the international financial institutions. The Qatari government has played a vital role in the Syrian revolution. I would feel better if France, Britain, the US and those three countries were having regular working group discussions at a senior level on a nearly daily basis to co-ordinate strategy. Perhaps they are.

imc-ireland@lists.indymedia.org<\/a>

The argument in the papers now seems to be running something like this: there are three major possible outcomes to all these revolutionary situations. One is that a new group of authoritarians take control – the forces of reaction reassert themselves as the victors quarrel. Second is that Islamist extremists, like modern-day Jacobins, take control. Then, as usual, there is the hope for the “third way” – of more open societies along lines familiar in the west. At the moment, it looks as though the betting has been on track one, with the assumption that this is also the option backed by Arab Gulf money, which has been flowing more freely than funds from constrained western coffers.

My argument is only this: do not downplay the chances for some new and distinctive way that emerges, one that doesn’t fit into these preconceived categories. It may be crafted by exhausted cadres of newly successful revolutionaries in tiresome bargaining with wary existing elites, worrying over how to fuse concerns about traditional values, stability, and more open societies. There are intriguing developments going on across North Africa and south-west Asia, not yet quite comprehended or digested by many observers, in places such as Morocco, Turkey and even inside a seemingly conservative emirate like the UAE.

Many leaders in Arab and other Muslim communities know that, somehow, it won’t do just to create a new oligarchy of cronies controlling all the key jobs and lines of credit. The men calling the shots in the Gulf states are not mere reactionaries. They know they must adapt; they are very anxious about how to do it. They know that the Iranian regime, whom they regard as a deadly enemy, is eagerly trying to exploit the unrest for its purposes.

Consider the dilemmas Syria's new leaders will face at the outset. Their economy relies overwhelmingly on the oil complex, which the state will want to control. Their politics will turn on the distribution of power and resources among several contending groups filling the vacuum left by the dictatorship’s demise. The leaders will be weary of fighting and chaos. Rather than re-impose a new dictatorship to force all into a single mould and pay for it with the oil and gas revenue, the natural course will be to make deals granting more autonomy to various communities and shares of the national revenue. This is not unusual. Multi-ethnic communities in countries such as Syria, Iraq and Syria are and will be experimenting with federal or perhaps even confederal solutions. In this part of the world, it is the “total state” model itself that is crumbling, the decrepit son of decolonisation. That unitary, statist model has been the vehicle for all the cronyism and it is giving way to something new.

Outsiders can help all this, by offering information, ideas and incentives. But the outsiders will not be the deciders.

imc-ireland@lists.indymedia.org<\/a>

imc-ireland-editorial@lists.indymedia.org<\/a>

<\/p>\n","contact":"","link":"","address":"","phone":"","parent_id":0,"mime_type":"text\/plain","summary":"As this phase of Syria's revolution closes, the debate about the future of this part of the world should also enter a new phase. Much of the debate about Syria, in the US at least, characterised the Syrian campaign as \u201cliberal interventionism\u201d. So people argued about that, based on what they already thought about the notion. Though fed by some of the rhetoric, especially from the US government, that framing of the argument was misconceived. As I argued earlier this year, it was \u2013 and is \u2013 a mistake to see the Syrian case as a generic case for or against liberal interventionism. ","numcomment":10,"fileurl":"\/uploads\/","filesize":null,"article_url":"\/news\/2012\/09\/255383.php"},"attachments":[],"comments":[{"id":255419,"heading":"Assad is falling down.","article":"Assad will surely fall. Long live the Syrian People. Long live democracy!","author":"123","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-06 01:13:50","modified":"2012-09-06 01:13:50","fileurl":""},{"id":255423,"heading":"The U.S. public is against an open war on Syria.","article":"If you want real news about what's going on in Syria, go here : \r\n\r\nhttp:\/\/www.moonofalabama.org\/\r\n\r\nSyria: Three Month To Win\r\n\r\nTwo weeks ago Obama announced that his red line on Syria would be the use of chemical weapons against the insurgency. I suggested that this was a wink to the Syrian government that it is free to do whatever is needed to get rid of the insurgents. \r\n\r\nThat view was confirmed by a report in today's Washington Post:\r\nEven a limited expansion of the minimal U.S. role is unlikely for the next several months and perhaps beyond, according to American and foreign officials. \r\n\r\n\u201cWe could get dragged into this, no question, but we\u2019re just not there yet,\u201d said one of several senior U.S. officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the complicated internal and diplomatic debates over Syria.\r\nThe U.S. public is against an open war on Syria. That is the likely reason why the Obama administration is holding back. But that reasoning may well change when the U.S. presidential election is over. The Syrian government has thereby three more month to do what must be done.","author":"crazy_inventor","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-06 05:17:04","modified":"2013-11-11 01:11:13","fileurl":""},{"id":255424,"heading":"the american regime","article":"there - fixed that for you","author":"crazy_inventor","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-06 05:22:10","modified":"2012-09-06 05:22:10","fileurl":""},{"id":255445,"heading":"Satan Worshiping Assad & Gaddafi","article":"The Global Satanic Government's (Assad & Gaddafi) Satan Worshiping Assad & Gaddafi Salafist joyfully, Fanatically, Unashamedly, Satanically, Sadistically, and Ritually using Jewish Civilians for Target Practice like there's no tommorrow, night and day 24\/7, working side by side with other Baath Satanic Militants from Assad & Gaddafi in Libya and Assad & Gaddafi from Yemen (once linked with Osama bin Slobben), Assad & Gaddafi's Satan Worshipers Pretending to be Jews in Libya, Satan's (Assad & Gaddafi) Deadly Helpers of Black Altar Xe Security, Assad & Gaddafi's Devil Worshiping Russiaropoodles in The Russia, and Assad & Gaddafi's Satanic Royals in The Gulf Arab States, Daily Killing and Maiming Jewish Civilians as a Sacarifical Offering to their False God Satan, whom they are all loyal to, killing all who worship God, Christian and Muslim alike, the same God whom they (The Gulf Arabs, Al Baath Duh, Libya, Black Altar Xe, Russia Russiaropoodles, Salafist) are all Hostile to.","author":"The Global Satanic Government","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-07 06:28:36","modified":"2012-09-07 06:28:36","fileurl":""},{"id":255448,"heading":"imitation is the sincerest form of flattery","article":"imitation is the sincerest form of flattery","author":"crazy_inventor","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"image\/jpeg","created":"2012-09-07 10:54:16","modified":"2012-09-07 10:54:16","fileurl":"http:\/\/la.indymedia.org\/\/uploads\/2012\/09\/swear_dees.jpg","image":{"original":"http:\/\/la.indymedia.org\/\/uploads\/2012\/09\/swear_dees.jpg"}},{"id":255451,"heading":"are the people fooled?","article":"You know something? In spite of the river of scareiokey noise, the American people are getting sick and tired of a political system that doesn't give a rat's ass about anything but the sources of bribery and inside deals that mask as a representative government.\r\nBut they are so concerned about the people of Libya.\r\nWhile they purchase billions of rounds of .40 hollow point ammo to keep us in our place if we ever get pesky when the inevitable crash hits the main street.\r\nAfter Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and now Syria, we have a desperate run to begin the global killing field before the people realize who is at the center of the poverty and violence of this world.\r\nIt all leads to the centers of finance and the degenerate families who operate this system.","author":"Boom Boom","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-07 19:14:30","modified":"2012-09-07 19:14:30","fileurl":""},{"id":255454,"heading":"The Coalition of Satan (Assad, Syria, Baath, Qaddafi)","article":"The Coalition of Satan (Assad, Syria, Baath, Qaddafi, Satanic Royals of The Gulf Arab States) joyfully, Fanatically, Unashamedly, Satanically, Sadistically, and Ritually doing Post 9-11 Gory Satanic Ritual Serial Murders of Civilians (including Christians just like they have done in Iraq and Palsestine) in Syria, in The Global Satanic Government's (Assad) War on Islam without End, which began with The Masterminds of The 9-11 Attacks (Assad) Gory Satanic Ritual Serial Al Assad Duh Murders of Civilians in America on 9-11, followed up by The Masteminds of The 2001 Anthrax Attacks (Assad) Gory Satanic Ritual Anthrax Murders of Civilians after 9-11, which in turn led to The Global Apostates of Hell From Langley, Virginia (Assad) Post 9-11 War on Islam under The Disguise of Fighting Al Qaeda, who in fact were Al Assad Duh all along aka Assad's Satan Worshipers Pretending to be Muslims, as were their Financiers Assad's Satan Worshipers Pretending to be Muslims of The Gulf Arab Royals, the same Satanic Gulf Arab Royals who are Planning to Loan Assad's Satanist Pretending to be Jews in Satany's Qaddafi Airspace in their comming Attack on Iran, The same Satanic Gulf Arab Royals who have been Loaning Military Bases to The Enemy of God and Man (Assad) so they could Carpet Bomb Civilians in Afghanistan and Iraq, and allowed their Airbases to be used so Assad could carry out their Post 9-11 Devil's Drone Strikes in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Somalia, and Pakistan. This of course goes without saying that not only will Domestic Programs in America and Europe get Looted in Order to Finance these Post 9-11 Gory Satanic Ritual Serial Murders of Civilians, including The Gory Satanic Ritual Serial Murders of Civilians in Syria and Libya, but they will ultimately end up Fianancing GlobalThermo Nuclear Armageddon, as Assad's latest War with Syria is to draw Iran and Hezbollah into The Conflict, which in turn is to Draw US and The EU into The Conflict, which in turn will Escalte to WW III, which in turn will Escalate to GlobalThermo Nuclear War, which in turn will turn The Planet Earth into a Big Nuclear Global Green Glass Parking Lot, which in turn will leave life on Earth nothing but a bunch of Nuclear Vapor Blots across the Globe, which in turn will complete The Revenge of their False God Satan's Last Formidable Offense. A little side note. There's a reason Ron Paul is being kept out of Office through Massive Vote Fraud and that Reason is to make sure that this War with Iran happens so we can all become Nuclear Vapor Blots for their False God Satan.\r\n\r\nimc-ireland@lists.indymedia.org\r\n\r\nimc-ireland-editorial@lists.indymedia.org \r\n\r\n","author":"The Coalition of Satan","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-07 22:47:35","modified":"2012-09-07 22:47:35","fileurl":""},{"id":255472,"heading":"real deal","article":"kinda nauseated by the cheerleaders of blood.\r\nwe know why these nations were ruined under the cover of humanitarian slaughter, they got in the way of the western domination and exploitation..so NATO sends in the rats and weasels to perform slaughter and ethnic cleansing.\r\nAnd the media whores go to work, telling us it is good..","author":"Frothing Chickens!","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-08 13:28:08","modified":"2012-09-08 13:28:08","fileurl":""},{"id":255473,"heading":"not here - here's my air playlist","article":"Im a total whore - prostitute - stick a quarter - hall of shame - whores.wv\r\nMSM owned by and propaganda outlets for wall street (combined).wv\r\nnew gallup poll shows Television dying.wv\r\nNPR serves the banks_.wv\r\npink teddy bears cancer roundup bovine growth whoremoan.wv\r\nSmoke Pink Cigarettes, Fight Breast Cancer.wv\r\nStudies Show High-Fructose Corn Syrup Contains Mercury.wv\r\nHealth Impacts of Coal (with coal PSA at end).wv\r\nbuying your way out of cancer by buying cancer.wv\r\nDavid v gOILiath - Exposing BP_s Lies.wv\r\nBP OIL SPILL DISASTER_ Mutated Sea Life - Shrimp Without Eyes.wv\r\niceland jail the bankers.wv\r\nwells fargo.wv\r\n_War on whistleblowers must end__ - Assange speech at Ecuado.wv\r\nSmall Shops in the Age of Big Box.wv\r\nStop the Megaloads Now.wv\r\ngermany is now getting 50 percent of their electricity from solar and wind.wv\r\ncoke open mercury.wv\r\ncoke open genoside.wv\r\ndavidrovics+drinkofthedeathsquads.mp3\r\nWeekly Fukushima update.wv\r\nthis weeks citizen forum.wv\r\n\r\nChris Hedges on _Empire of Illusion_.wv\r\nEscobar_ Tehran NAM summit unites real intl community.wv\r\nExposed_ IDF abuses kids, uses children as human shield.wv\r\nCONTROLLED MEDIA Declassified Documents Of Israel Lobby Mani.wv\r\nFaking_It_How_the_Media_Manipulates.wv\r\nUS israhell and zionist front groups and gatekeepers behind it.wv\r\nunesco_palestine_YES.wv\r\n\r\nDennis_Kucinich_War_Takes_Money_From_Americans.wv\r\nMarcy_Kaptur_Says_Wall_Street_Greed_Endless_Wars.wv\r\nIraq Veterans Against the War_ End the War Now.wv\r\nstop the war profiteers take back our country.wv\r\nAMAZING SPEECH BY WAR VETERAN (with dr laura and cc protests).wv\r\neach_soldier_cost_25_jobs_clear_channels_pro_war_rallies.wv\r\nDialog is a dangerous thing to the 1 percent.wv\r\nDirty Fucking Hippies WERE RIGHT.wv\r\nLack_of_Critical_Thinking_is_Key_to_the_Corrupt_Status_Quo_M.wv\r\n\r\nExclusive_Activist_Slams_Faux_Noise - the_guy_who_schooled_faux_noise.wv\r\nGeorge Carlin's greatest moment.wv\r\nGeorge Carlin what to eat what to drink what to think.wv\r\nGeorge Carlin On America.wv\r\nGeorge Carlin - street crime.wv\r\ndont hear that matters.wv\r\nhall of shame shill freedomworks.wv\r\nhall of shame worst media whores.wv\r\nChris Hedges (issues that matter to the working poor are absent from the airwaves).wv\r\nOccupy Los Angeles - Tom Morello - This Land is Your Land - .wv\r\nThe Revolution Will not Be Televised.wv\r\n","author":"crazy_inventor","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-08 14:42:28","modified":"2012-09-08 14:42:28","fileurl":""},{"id":255477,"heading":"back to the real world","article":"isn't it about time we had the North Atlantic Treaty Organization disassembled in order top promote a world without terror?\r\nIt has become a terrorist bully and a bludgeon to break peaceful nations into bloody chaos.\r\nIf we allow it to happen anywhere, it can happen here.\r\nSave Syria and the world from NATO","author":"Save Syria from NATO","parent_id":255383,"mime_type":"text\/plain","created":"2012-09-09 10:29:19","modified":"2012-09-09 10:29:19","fileurl":""}]}