{"article":{"id":138377,"heading":"CUCKOO ECONOMICS (Abridged Ed.)","author":"Gavin R. Putland","created":"2005-11-01 19:50:38","modified":"2013-11-11 00:35:53","last_modified":"Mon, 11 Nov 2013 07:35:53","article":"<br>  <br>                      CUCKOO ECONOMICS <br>  <br>                       (Abridged Ed.) <br><br>                      Gavin R. Putland <br>  <br>                      October 31, 2005 <br><br>            (Original Ed. released Oct.19, 2005) <br><br>  <br>  <br> CONTENTS <br><br>       1.  Bird brains <br>  <br>       2.  Counterfeit \"capital\" <br>  <br>       3.  Bait and switch <br>  <br>       4.  The preferred enemy <br>  <br>       5.  \"Natural\" unemployment <br>  <br>       6.  All-devouring rent <br>  <br>       7.  \"Free\" trade <br>  <br>       8.  The cause of recessions <br>  <br>       9.  The U.S. dollar bubble <br>  <br>      10.  Rogue states <br>  <br>      11.  The Great Depression of 2006-? <br>  <br>      12.  Summary <br><br>      Notes <br><br>      Copyright <br><br>  <br><br> 1.  BIRD BRAINS <br><br> The history of life on earth is the history of gene wars: <br>  <br> the genes that survive longest are those that are best able <br>  <br> to propagate themselves. To call this SURVIVAL OF THE <br>  <br> FITTEST is pointless because FITNESS has no meaning apart <br>  <br> from *ability to survive*. <br><br> The European cuckoo, for example, lays its eggs in the <br>  <br> nests of other birds and thereby enlists the labor of other <br>  <br> species in the propagation of its own genes. This behavior <br>  <br> *impedes the continuation of those species whose nests are <br>  <br> used, and does not assist the continuation of the class of <br>  <br> birds as a whole*; but it assists the propagation of the <br>  <br> cuckoo's genes, and no other consideration affects the <br>  <br> measure of \"fitness\" of those genes or of the behavior that <br>  <br> they produce. <br><br> If birds were endowed with conscience and reason, they <br>  <br> might think it inequitable to use other birds' labor <br>  <br> without compensation. They might perceive that if such <br>  <br> exploitation is permitted, it *reduces the incentive* to <br>  <br> build nests and feed chicks. They might conclude that birds <br>  <br> should serve their own interests in ways that *add to the <br>  <br> total welfare* of birds instead of merely *subtracting from <br>  <br> the welfare of others*. So, if all birds were subject to <br>  <br> one government, would not that government make a law <br>  <br> against laying eggs in the nests of other birds? Not if the <br>  <br> history of *human* government gives any guidance! <br><br>  <br>  <br> 2.  COUNTERFEIT \"CAPITAL\" <br><br> The assets known as the \"means of production\" fall into two <br>  <br> categories: <br><br> * *Assets that taxpayers can neither create nor destroy nor <br>  <br>   move out of the taxing jurisdiction* may be called LAND- <br>  <br>   LIKE assets or SITE-LIKE assets (where a SITE means a <br>  <br>   piece of ground or airspace, including any *attached <br>  <br>   rights* to erect buildings on that ground or into that <br>  <br>   airspace, but *excluding* any actual buildings). <br><br> * The rest -- that is, assets that taxpayers can move and\/ <br>  <br>   or destroy and\/or refrain from creating -- may be called <br>  <br>   HOUSE-LIKE assets. <br><br> By this terminology, *house-like* assets used as means of <br>  <br> production include not only buildings and other fixed <br>  <br> structures, but also industrial and commercial equipment of <br>  <br> all kinds (fixed or movable) and stock in trade. The great <br>  <br> classical economists from Adam Smith (1723-1790) to Max <br>  <br> Hirsch (1853-1909) called such assets CAPITAL. Because the <br>  <br> production of house-like assets *adds to the total wealth* <br>  <br> of humanity, and because the profits from such assets are <br>  <br> an *incentive* to produce the assets, capitalists advocate <br>  <br> the private ownership of house-like assets and the private <br>  <br> appropriation of profits derived therefrom. <br><br> *Land-like* assets include not only sites, but other <br>  <br> natural resources (which cannot be created by human <br>  <br> effort), statutory monopolies and limited licenses (which <br>  <br> can be created only by governments), and the so-called <br>  <br> NATURAL MONOPOLIES enjoyed by providers of networked <br>  <br> services such as electricity, gas, water, railways, and (at <br>  <br> the time of writing) telecommunications [1]. Returns on <br>  <br> land-like assets, net of the demands of labor and capital, <br>  <br> are known as ECONOMIC RENT [2]; owners of such assets <br>  <br> constitute the RENTIER class. The term \"rentier\" should be <br>  <br> understood as *functional* rather than personal, because <br>  <br> the same person may perform more than one economic role. <br>  <br> (For example, one man may be a worker *and* a capital owner <br>  <br> *and* a rentier -- and, under present arrangements, may <br>  <br> lose more in the first two roles than he gains in the <br>  <br> third.) <br><br> From the viewpoint of taxpayers, land-like assets cannot be <br>  <br> *produced*, but can only be *acquired*. Such acquisitions <br>  <br> do *not* add to the total assets of humanity. Furthermore, <br>  <br> while the returns on labor and capital applied to a land- <br>  <br> like asset are incentives to apply that labor and capital, <br>  <br> the return on the asset itself (net of the demands of labor <br>  <br> and capital) is *not* an incentive to do anything except <br>  <br> acquire the asset; indeed, the party acquiring the asset <br>  <br> need not be the one applying the labor or capital. <br>  <br> Therefore the argument by which capitalists rightly defend <br>  <br> the private ownership of house-like assets and the private <br>  <br> appropriation of the returns on house-like assets is *not <br>  <br> applicable* to land-like assets. But they apply it anyway! <br><br>  <br>  <br> 3.  BAIT AND SWITCH <br><br> Because land-like assets by definition are protected from <br>  <br> competition, the returns thereon are high and increase in <br>  <br> line with economic growth, giving the owners both the <br>  <br> motive and the means to fight for the retention of \"their\" <br>  <br> economic rents. In the late 19th century, when economics <br>  <br> was becoming established as a separate academic discipline, <br>  <br> rentiers were well represented on the trustee boards of <br>  <br> certain prestigious American universities, whose <br>  <br> endowments, moreover, consisted chiefly of land grants. And <br>  <br> there was no academic tenure: professors who did not do the <br>  <br> bidding of their paymasters could be fired without process <br><br> or redress. <br><br> So *the language of economics was corrupted so as to <br>  <br> conflate land with capital, economic rent with profit, and <br>  <br> acquisition with production*, in order to obscure the <br>  <br> advantages of a selective tax on land-like assets [3]. As <br>  <br> the unit of heredity is the selfish gene, which is no less <br>  <br> \"fit\" if it propagates purely at the expense of other <br>  <br> genes, so the unit of economic analysis became the selfish <br>  <br> ENTITY (individual or firm), which was no less praiseworthy <br>  <br> if it prospered purely at the expense of other entities. It <br>  <br> was as if the cuckoos, being relieved of the burden of <br>  <br> building nests, had used their discretionary time to <br>  <br> convince other birds that any restriction on the laying of <br>  <br> eggs in other birds' nests would *discourage* the building <br>  <br> of nests! <br><br> By calling itself NEO-CLASSICAL economics, the new pseudo- <br>  <br> science masqueraded as the successor, though in fact it was <br>  <br> the usurper, of the classical tradition. Within a <br>  <br> generation it became the new orthodoxy. <br><br>  <br>  <br> 4.  THE PREFERRED ENEMY <br><br> The obvious winners under the neo-classical paradigm were <br>  <br> the rentiers; for if land-like assets were capital, then <br>  <br> capitalism, which demanded private ownership of capital and <br>  <br> private enjoyment of profit, implicitly also demanded <br>  <br> private ownership of land-like assets and private <br>  <br> appropriation of economic rent. <br><br> *The other winners, whether by accident or by design, were <br>  <br> communists!* For if land was nothing but capital, then <br>  <br> communism, which began by demanding expropriation of land, <br>  <br> was obliged in the name of \"consistency\" to demand <br>  <br> expropriation of *all* forms of capital, enabling the <br>  <br> revolutionaries to eschew intellectual distinctions between <br>  <br> categories of assets and stir up the masses by appealing to <br>  <br> crude envy. <br><br> The conflation of land with capital did not *precede* these <br>  <br> developments in capitalism and communism, but it offered a <br>  <br> false conceptual framework that was willingly adopted by <br>  <br> both rentiers and communists to entrench their respective <br>  <br> positions and deny the existence of any intermediate <br>  <br> position. It was as if the cuckoos, in order to protect <br>  <br> their legal right to lay eggs in other birds' nests, had <br>  <br> colluded with a gang of avian revolutionaries who wanted to <br>  <br> expropriate all nests and raise all chicks in common! <br><br>  <br>  <br> 5.  \"NATURAL\" UNEMPLOYMENT <br><br> As the rentiers and their economists have forbidden heavy <br>  <br> taxation of economic rent, governments are compelled by <br>  <br> default to impose punitive taxes on work, investment, <br>  <br> employment, and the consumption that sustains demand -- in <br>  <br> short, on everything that capitalism professes to <br>  <br> encourage. All these taxes socialize the fruits of <br>  <br> individual effort -- as communists recommend. They also <br>  <br> increase the cost of hiring a worker at a given standard of <br>  <br> living, and consequently tend to increase inflation or <br>  <br> unemployment or both. Central banks fight the inflationary <br>  <br> tendency by raising interest rates (or otherwise <br>  <br> restricting credit) to discourage hiring and consumption, <br>  <br> causing yet more unemployment, in order to maintain <br>  <br> unemployment at the so-called NATURAL RATE, which the neo- <br>  <br> classicists define as the minimum unemployment rate that <br>  <br> causes sufficient downward pressure on wages to yield <br>  <br> stable inflation. <br><br> Thus, for the neo-classicists, unemployment is *not* an <br>  <br> evil to be avoided, but the price of ensuring that rentiers <br>  <br> can enjoy their economic rents with minimal interference <br>  <br> from the tax authorities. <br><br> Obviously politicians cannot admit the \"need\" for a certain <br>  <br> rate of unemployment. They must always pretend to want full <br>  <br> employment, and will be judged on their success in reducing <br>  <br> unemployment during their terms of office. Given that the <br>  <br> central bank will maintain unemployment at the natural <br>  <br> rate, the *actual* rate cannot be reduced except by <br>  <br> reducing the *natural* rate. And if, due to opposition from <br>  <br> the rentier class, the natural rate cannot be reduced by <br>  <br> shifting the tax burden onto economic rent, the only <br>  <br> remaining method is to make life more difficult for the <br>  <br> unemployed, increasing the desperation of the unemployed to <br>  <br> get jobs and of the employed to keep them, so that *the <br>  <br> same downward pressure on wages can be obtained with a <br>  <br> smaller number of unemployed*. Having a smaller number of <br>  <br> more desperate unemployed does not reduce the overall <br>  <br> severity of the problem, but makes the statistics look <br>  <br> better. Hence we see \"mutual obligation\" policies including <br>  <br> one or more of the following: <br><br> * Idlers are compelled to seek jobs and consequently *take <br>  <br>   jobs from people who want to work*. <br><br> * Job-seekers are compelled to submit certain quotas of job <br>  <br>   applications per week. This keeps them busy, forces them <br>  <br>   to incur expenses, and *artificially intensifies the <br>  <br>   competition for jobs* -- the implication being that the <br>  <br>   scarcity of jobs, by itself, does not cause sufficiently <br>  <br>   cut-throat competition. <br><br> * Unemployed people are compelled to \"work for the dole\" <br>  <br>   *and* submit quotas of job applications. They are *not* <br>  <br>   hired as ordinary employees to do the same work for the <br>  <br>   same hours at the same cost to the government -- because <br>  <br>   if they were, they would no longer have to apply for <br>  <br>   other jobs. <br><br> * The dole is cut off after a certain time. <br><br> To defend such policies, governments must cultivate the <br>  <br> myth that unemployment consists in unwillingness to work, <br>  <br> whereas in fact unemployment, by definition, is an <br>  <br> *oversupply* of willing workers relative to the available <br>  <br> jobs. Here it may be instructive to note that the closest <br>  <br> human analog of the cuckoo is the man whose illegitimate <br>  <br> children are supported by the husband of his mistress. <br>  <br> Etymologically, \"cuckoo\" and \"cuckold\" ought to be <br>  <br> synonymous. Yet it is the husband of the adulteress, not <br>  <br> her partner in adultery, who is called the cuckold! <br><br>  <br>  <br> 6.  ALL-DEVOURING RENT <br><br> No worker can live, and no enterprise can trade, without <br>  <br> occupying space on the surface of the earth. Yet all the <br>  <br> usable space is owned. So the rents and prices of land are <br>  <br> competed upward, and the returns to labor and capital are <br>  <br> consequently competed downward, until the returns to labor <br>  <br> (net of the cost of access to residential land) are reduced <br>  <br> to the minimum for which workers will \"consent\" to acquire <br>  <br> skills, work, and raise the next generation of workers [4], <br>  <br> while the returns to capital (net of the cost of access to <br>  <br> commercial land) are reduced to the minimum for which the <br>  <br> financiers will consent to save and invest. *Every direct <br>  <br> improvement in the condition of the working class or the <br>  <br> employing class is competed away in the land market*, so <br>  <br> that the ultimate benefit accrues not to the nominal <br>  <br> recipient, but to the cuckoo in the nest: the land-owning <br>  <br> class. <br><br> *That is why the ever-increasing sums handed out in wages, <br>  <br> welfare, charity, and industry assistance never seem to be <br>  <br> enough.* But because the real reason is not widely <br>  <br> understood, the rentiers and their economists can easily <br>  <br> blame the nominal recipients for allegedly squandering the <br>  <br> assistance given to them. It is as if the cuckoos, having <br>  <br> laid their eggs in other birds' nests and taxed all the <br>  <br> birds to help feed the cuckoo chicks, explained the host <br>  <br> birds' lack of reproductive success by accusing them of <br>  <br> wasting the food! <br><br> The effective demand for land-like assets tends to increase <br>  <br> due to population growth (which increases competition for <br>  <br> use or acquisition of assets), economic growth (which <br>  <br> increases capacity to pay for the assets), and improvements <br>  <br> in technological infrastructure (which increases the <br>  <br> amenity of certain types of assets, especially sites). But, <br>  <br> as the assets are land-like, this additional demand cannot <br>  <br> be offset by additional supply. So *land-like assets tend <br>  <br> to appreciate in real terms*. This causes SPECULATIVE <br>  <br> DEMAND for land-like assets as individuals and corporations <br>  <br> buy assets in the hope of reselling them for higher prices, <br>  <br> or try to save money by early acquisition of assets that <br>  <br> they intend to use later. The speculative motive raises <br>  <br> prices because all buyers must compete with the <br>  <br> speculators. Worse, assets held by speculators are likely <br>  <br> to be unused or underused because the owners are not yet <br>  <br> ready to use them, or because the owners wish to avoid <br>  <br> commitments that would fetter their ability to sell at the <br>  <br> most opportune times. This effect raises not only prices, <br>  <br> but also rents, as not only buyers but also renters must <br>  <br> compete with the speculators. <br><br> A sufficiently heavy tax on the holding of land-like assets <br>  <br> requires the owners to use the assets efficiently in order <br>  <br> to generate sufficient income to cover the tax. That is <br>  <br> enough to eliminate the price and rent premiums caused by <br>  <br> the non-use and under-use of speculatively held assets. In <br>  <br> this case -- and only in this case -- the benefit to <br>  <br> workers and owners of capital is *not* competed away in the <br>  <br> land market, because it arises from reduced competition for <br>  <br> land! <br><br> Rentiers and their economists agree that such a tax is a <br>  <br> bad idea, but disagree as to the reasons. Some, who seem <br>  <br> never to have looked out the window of a bus or train, <br>  <br> flatly deny that the culture of speculation leads to non- <br>  <br> use or under-use of land. Others pretend that such non-use <br>  <br> or under-use is socially desirable in that it prevents any <br>  <br> initial use that would interfere with conversion to a <br>  <br> higher use at the optimal time, as if the initial use were <br>  <br> not desirable in itself, and as if the higher use would not <br>  <br> interfere with conversion to a still higher use at a still <br>  <br> later time -- yea, as if the cuckoos were helping other <br>  <br> birds by giving them time to become better parents! <br><br>  <br>  <br> 7.  \"FREE\" TRADE <br><br> The neo-classicists claim that income tax is compatible <br>  <br> with \"free\" trade because it is \"non-discriminatory\" <br>  <br> between domestic and international transactions. Never mind <br>  <br> that the tax on export income raises export prices as if it <br>  <br> were a tariff in every country of destination of those <br>  <br> exports. Similarly, they claim that a value-added tax (VAT) <br>  <br> or goods-and-services tax (GST) is compatible with \"free\" <br>  <br> trade because it is finally paid in the country of <br>  <br> consumption and is \"non-discriminatory\" as regards the <br>  <br> country of origin. Never mind that the VAT\/GST on imports <br>  <br> raises their prices as if it were a tariff. Never mind that <br>  <br> the same tax inflates export prices through its compliance <br>  <br> costs and its influence on the cost of living, hence wages. <br>  <br> Never mind that as long as taxation is \"non-discriminatory\" <br>  <br> by the neo-classicists' definition, trade can be taxed to <br>  <br> the point of prohibition and still be considered free! <br><br> In fact, *all* taxes on house-like assets impede trade and <br>  <br> raise prices by discouraging the production of such assets, <br>  <br> while *all* transaction taxes impede trade and raise prices <br>  <br> by discouraging transactions. <br><br> *The only taxes that do not impede trade or raise prices <br>  <br> are holding taxes on land-like assets*. The economic rents <br>  <br> of such assets are *not incentives* to produce anything. <br>  <br> So as long as the holding taxes take no more than the <br>  <br> annualized economic rents, they cannot restrict the supply <br>  <br> or raise the price (or hire or rent) of any product or <br>  <br> asset. <br><br> Hence, *by collecting more of its public revenue from <br>  <br> holding taxes on land-like assets, and less from other <br>  <br> taxes, a country can make itself more competitive.* This of <br>  <br> course would compel other countries to do likewise. So the <br>  <br> rentier class and its economists are constantly on guard to <br>  <br> ensure that no country is the first to take this step; they <br>  <br> know that the price of freedom (from the need to work for a <br>  <br> living) is eternal vigilance [3, pp.237-260]. <br><br>  <br>  <br> 8.  THE CAUSE OF RECESSIONS <br><br> In a *rational market*, the CAPITALIZED (or \"lump-sum\") <br>  <br> value of a land-like asset is the DISCOUNTED PRESENT VALUE <br>  <br> of the future rent stream. (That is, the capitalized value <br>  <br> is the lump sum that would yield an interest stream equal <br>  <br> to the rent for the same risk, or the sum of the future <br>  <br> rental payments individually discounted for time and risk.) <br>  <br> But the market is not always rational. When assets of a <br>  <br> certain type are conspicuously appreciating, people want to <br>  <br> buy them. In so doing, they accelerate the rise in prices, <br>  <br> inducing more people to buy the assets, and so on, causing <br>  <br> a speculative BUBBLE -- that is, a state in which prices <br>  <br> are decoupled from rents and are supported solely by the <br>  <br> circular argument that prices will continue to rise. <br>  <br> Eventually the illusion becomes unsustainable and the price <br>  <br> rise slows down, which takes away the alleged justification <br>  <br> for current prices, and so on, until prices dive back to <br>  <br> earth: the bubble \"bursts\". But eventually the natural <br>  <br> appreciation of land-like assets leads to a new bubble in <br>  <br> the same asset class. So the market for any land-like asset <br>  <br> class is CYCLIC. <br><br> A bursting bubble in a particular asset market has two <br>  <br> counteracting effects. On the one hand, it drives investors <br>  <br> away from that asset class and, by default, towards some <br>  <br> other asset class that may also be susceptible to bubbles. <br>  <br> On the other hand, those who have invested heavily in the <br>  <br> collapsed market have to reduce their expenditure, and some <br>  <br> become insolvent. As one agent's expenditure is another's <br>  <br> income, and as one agent's debt is another's asset, a chain <br>  <br> reaction ensues, reducing the funds available for <br>  <br> investment in other asset markets, possibly causing them to <br>  <br> collapse, and so on; these are the ingredients of a <br>  <br> recession. After an isolated bubble-burst, the former <br>  <br> effect tends to dominate; thus the stock-market crash of <br>  <br> 1987 led to a land bubble. But after a second burst in <br>  <br> quick succession, the cumulative belt-tightening and bad <br>  <br> debt tend to cause a recession; thus the land burst of 1989 <br>  <br> led to the recession of 1990-91. <br><br> In short, a burst in one asset market interferes with the <br>  <br> cycles of other markets, sometimes pushing them out of <br>  <br> synchronism by encouraging bubbles, and sometimes drawing <br>  <br> them into synchronism by triggering further bursts (and a <br>  <br> recession). This mutual interference, complicated by <br>  <br> external shocks, makes it difficult to discern the <br>  <br> autonomous cycles of some asset classes, and causes <br>  <br> irregularities in cycles that can be more easily discerned. <br>  <br> The clearest cycles are the *residential land cycle* <br>  <br> (typically 9 years in duration) and the *commercial land <br>  <br> cycle* (typically 18 years). A bursting land bubble is the <br>  <br> most reliable *single* predictor of a recession; in <br>  <br> particular, the global recessions of 1974-5, 1981-2, and <br>  <br> 1990-91 were heralded by bursting \"property\" bubbles, i.e. <br>  <br> land bubbles [5]. <br><br> A sufficiently heavy holding tax on land-like assets would <br>  <br> *prevent recessions by preventing speculative bubbles*. If <br>  <br> the tax were based on capitalized values or changes in <br>  <br> capitalized values, it would force speculators to consider <br>  <br> the tax implications before bidding up prices. If based on <br>  <br> changes in *annualized* values, it would directly reduce <br>  <br> the changes in after-tax rents that translate into <br>  <br> speculative gains; in particular, if it were to take *all* <br>  <br> real increases in rental values, it would prevent real <br>  <br> increases in capitalized values and thereby *entirely* <br>  <br> eliminate the speculative motive. <br><br> The first years of the 21st century were marked by a <br>  <br> *global* property bubble. The inevitable burst began in <br>  <br> Australia in early 2004. It has spread to the British Isles <br>  <br> and Europe, and in due course must reach the United States. <br>  <br> Although this global bubble was confined to \"housing\" (i.e. <br>  <br> residential land), it was the *biggest asset bubble in <br>  <br> history* in terms of the combined GDPs of the affected <br>  <br> countries [6] -- and that measure fails to account for the <br>  <br> number and economic weight of the countries involved. The <br>  <br> bigger the bubble, the bigger the burst. The bigger the <br>  <br> burst, the bigger the recession. <br><br> But even that is understating the problem. <br><br>  <br>  <br> 9.  THE U.S. DOLLAR BUBBLE <br><br> As the money supply is controlled directly or indirectly by <br>  <br> government, money is a land-like asset and a component of <br>  <br> the so-called interest of money is economic rent. This <br>  <br> economic rent accrues to those who merely *possess* money. <br>  <br> What of those who also *create* it? <br><br> For half a century the U.S. dollar has been the *de facto* <br>  <br> international currency. Importers need reserves of dollars <br>  <br> to pay their suppliers. Central banks need reserves of <br>  <br> dollars to protect their currencies. Poor countries must <br>  <br> borrow dollars to get capital, and must earn dollars to <br>  <br> service their debts. Hence the growth in international <br>  <br> trade causes growth in the global demand for U.S. dollars, <br>  <br> allowing the U.S. to export dollars -- which cost nothing <br>  <br> to produce -- and receive real goods and services in <br>  <br> return. That is how the U.S. manages to import 50 percent <br>  <br> more goods and services than it exports. When the exported <br>  <br> dollars are invested, they can be invested only in U.S. <br>  <br> assets, creating a demand for U.S. Treasury Bills without <br>  <br> high interest rates, and inflating the price\/earnings <br>  <br> ratios of U.S. property, stocks, and bonds. This inflow of <br>  <br> investment creates a surplus on the CAPITAL ACCOUNT, which <br>  <br> balances the deficit on the CURRENT ACCOUNT (including <br>  <br> imports, exports, interest, rent, and dividends). <br><br> The U.S. dollar is also the dominant currency -- and until <br>  <br> November 2000 was the exclusive currency -- for <br>  <br> international trading in *oil*. Therefore any increase in <br>  <br> the global demand for oil *or the price of oil* causes a <br>  <br> corresponding increase in global demand for the U.S. dollar <br>  <br> and boosts its value, protecting the U.S. economy against <br>  <br> the inflationary effect of higher global oil prices and <br>  <br> allowing the U.S. to increase its trade deficit. Hence the <br>  <br> reinvestment of exported dollars in U.S. assets is <br>  <br> sometimes called RECYCLING OF PETRODOLLARS. <br><br> One consequence of this recycling of petrodollars is that <br>  <br> the value of the dollar is out of proportion to its earning <br>  <br> capacity (interest on dollars, or yields on other dollar- <br>  <br> denominated assets). That is one characteristic of a <br>  <br> *bubble*. <br><br> After 1971, when the U.S. dollar ceased to be backed by <br>  <br> gold, the dollar's position as the world currency became <br>  <br> increasingly dependent on its use in the oil trade, so that <br>  <br> the argument supporting the dollar became circular: dollars <br>  <br> would buy oil *because* oil exporters would accept dollars <br>  <br> *because* dollars would buy other products *because* <br>  <br> exporters of other products would accept dollars *because* <br>  <br> dollars would buy oil! Valuation by circular argument is <br>  <br> another characteristic of a *bubble*. <br><br> One thing that could burst the bubble is a credible <br>  <br> alternative to the dollar -- such as the euro. <br><br>  <br>  <br> 10.  ROGUE STATES <br><br> Iraq began selling oil for euros instead of dollars in <br>  <br> November 2000. When Iraqi oil exports resumed after the <br>  <br> U.S.-led invasion, payments were again in dollars [7]. <br><br> Iran expressed interest in the euro from 1999, and had <br>  <br> converted most of its currency reserves to euros by late <br>  <br> 2002. In 2003, Iran began accepting payment in euros for <br>  <br> oil exports to Europe and Asia. In mid 2004, Iran announced <br>  <br> that it would establish a euro-denominated international <br>  <br> oil bourse (exchange), which is now due to start trading by <br>  <br> March 2006 [8,9]. George W. Bush named Iran in his \"axis of <br>  <br> evil\" in January 2002. If Bush's speech was designed to <br>  <br> revive the flagging fortunes of extremist candidates in <br>  <br> Iranian elections, it could hardly have been more <br>  <br> successful: on October 26, 2005, Iran's newly elected <br>  <br> President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, quoting the late Ayatollah <br>  <br> Ruhollah Khomeini, declared that \"Israel must be wiped off <br>  <br> the map.\" <br><br> Since September 2000, Venezuela and 13 other Latin-American <br>  <br> countries have entered into barter agreements whereby <br>  <br> Venezuela sells oil for goods and services instead of <br>  <br> dollars. In April 2002, editorials in the U.S. media <br>  <br> welcomed news of a coup against Venezuela's elected <br>  <br> President Hugo Chavez; but the coup collapsed after two <br>  <br> days [10,11]. In mid 2005, Venezuela decided to move its <br>  <br> currency reserves out of U.S. banks and liquidate its <br>  <br> investments in U.S. Treasury securities. By early October, <br>  <br> about 60 percent of its reserves had been converted to <br>  <br> euros [12]. <br><br> The U.S. may threaten Iran and Venezuela; but if Russia and <br>  <br> Norway start selling their oil for euros, the U.S. will <br>  <br> have to take it on the chin. <br><br>  <br>  <br> 11.  THE GREAT DEPRESSION OF 2006-? <br><br> Given that the value of the U.S. dollar must fall, nobody <br>  <br> wants to be the last sucker holding dollars. Therefore any <br>  <br> perception that the crash is imminent will trigger selling <br>  <br> of dollars in an effort to pre-empt the crash. That selling <br>  <br> will amplify the perception, causing more selling, and so <br>  <br> on; so the perception will become reality. Moreover, *the <br>  <br> rush to sell dollars will extend to dollar-denominated <br>  <br> assets*, including U.S. property, stocks, bonds, and bills. <br>  <br> So the burst of the dollar bubble may be the trigger for <br>  <br> the expected burst of the U.S. property bubble -- among <br>  <br> other things. <br><br> If, on the contrary, the U.S. property bubble bursts of its <br>  <br> own accord, the falling value of this class of dollar- <br>  <br> denominated assets will reduce the attractiveness of <br>  <br> holding dollars. Worse, the recession precipitated by the <br>  <br> property burst will bring down other dollar-denominated <br>  <br> asset markets. If the initial collapse of the U.S. property <br>  <br> market is not enough to prick the dollar bubble, the <br>  <br> ensuing collapse of other dollar-denominated asset markets <br>  <br> will certainly be enough, and the dollar crash in turn will <br>  <br> drive further selling of dollar-denominated assets. <br><br> In either case, there will be a *multiple burst involving <br>  <br> not only the global property bubble*, which is already <br>  <br> deflating outside the U.S., *but also the U.S. dollar <br>  <br> bubble and every other asset bubble that has been pumped up <br>  <br> by recycled petrodollars*. The bigger the burst, the bigger <br>  <br> the recession. <br><br>  <br>  <br> 12.  SUMMARY <br><br> In short, the neo-classical economy works like this. The <br>  <br> supplies of certain assets, including land, are not within <br>  <br> the control of taxpayers. The returns on such assets <br>  <br> (economic rent) are not due to any activity of the owners <br>  <br> (rentiers) and therefore *could* be taken for public <br>  <br> revenue, by means of holding taxes, with no ill effects. <br>  <br> But this option is rejected. Instead, governments impose <br>  <br> taxes penalizing everything that the neo-classicists <br>  <br> profess to encourage. These taxes deter employment and feed <br>  <br> inflation. Central banks fight the inflation by raising <br>  <br> interest rates, causing more unemployment, for which the <br>  <br> politicians' remedy is not to create more jobs (which would <br>  <br> defeat the efforts of the central banks) but to intensify <br>  <br> the competition for the few jobs that are available. <br>  <br> Meanwhile, the opportunity to speculate on land-like assets <br>  <br> creates a permanent artificial demand for those assets, <br>  <br> causing permanent price premiums and rent premiums <br>  <br> exacerbated by periodic speculative bubbles, which burst <br>  <br> causing periodic recessions. One of these overpriced <br>  <br> land-like asset classes is residential land, for which <br>  <br> working people must pay out of wages that have been <br>  <br> depressed by the deliberately engineered scarcity of jobs, <br>  <br> eroded by income tax, and devalued by indirect taxes. <br>  <br> Unemployment, poverty, and housing stress are the price <br>  <br> that must be paid so that rentiers can continue to enjoy <br>  <br> the economic rent that they do not produce. This is the <br>  <br> prize for which the Cold War was fought, the End of <br>  <br> History, the capitalist Nirvana. <br><br> ----------------------------------------------------------- <br><br> NOTES <br><br> [1] A networked service is a monopoly in the sense that any <br>  <br> new competitor wishing to serve its first customer must <br>  <br> either replicate the whole network, which is prohibitively <br>  <br> expensive, or connect to the existing network on terms <br>  <br> dictated by the owner or governed by regulation; none of <br>  <br> these options admits free and fair competition. <br><br> [2] The so-called \"rent\" of real property comprises the <br>  <br> rent of the land plus the hire of any building(s) attached <br>  <br> to the land; only the former is economic rent. The so- <br>  <br> called \"rent\" of a vehicle is not economic rent, but a <br>  <br> return on capital. <br><br> [3] M. Gaffney, F. Harrison, and K. Feder, THE CORRUPTION <br>  <br> OF ECONOMICS (London: Shepheard-Walwyn, 1994; 271pp.). <br><br> [4] Of course workers can hardly refuse to acquire skills <br>  <br> and to work. But nowadays they can easily refuse to raise <br>  <br> the next generation of workers if the future for workers <br>  <br> looks bleak. That is their biggest bargaining chip. <br><br> [5] Concerning the theory that recessions are due to high <br>  <br> oil prices, suffice it to say that (i) there were <br>  <br> recessions before there were oil shocks; (ii) the recession <br>  <br> of 1990-91 started before the oil shock that allegedly <br>  <br> caused it; and (iii) in the words of Alan Greenspan, \"we <br>  <br> create these elaborate models for policy responses and we <br>  <br> put in oil prices [but] they don't create a recession in <br>  <br> the models\" [answer to a question from the International <br>  <br> Monetary Conference (London, June 8, 2004), transcribed by <br>  <br> Ashley Seager and quoted in Fred Harrison, BOOM BUST <br>  <br> (London: Shepheard-Walwyn, 2005), p.65]. <br><br> [6] THE ECONOMIST, June 16, 2005; <br>  <br> <a href=\"http:\/\/economist.com\/opinion\/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4079458\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/economist.com\/opinion\/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4079458<\/a> , <br>  <br> <a href=\"http:\/\/economist.com\/opinion\/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4079027\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/economist.com\/opinion\/displaystory.cfm?story_id=4079027<\/a> . <br><br> [7] William Clark et al., \"U.S. Dollar vs. the Euro: Another <br>  <br> Reason for the Invasion of Iraq\", PROJECT CENSORED, #19 for <br>  <br> 2002-3, <a href=\"http:\/\/projectcensored.org\/publications\/2004\/19.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/projectcensored.org\/publications\/2004\/19.html<\/a> ; <br>  <br> 5 refs. <br><br> [8] William Clark et al., \"Iran's New Oil Trade System <br>  <br> Challenges U.S. Currency \", PROJECT CENSORED, #9 for 2004-5, <br>  <br> <a href=\"http:\/\/projectcensored.org\/censored_2006\/index.htm#9\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/projectcensored.org\/censored_2006\/index.htm#9<\/a> ; 5 refs. <br><br> [9] C&oacute;il&iacute;n Nunan, \"Petrodollar or Petroeuro? A new source <br>  <br> of global conflict\", FEASTA REVIEW No.2, <br>  <br> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.feasta.org\/documents\/review2\/nunan.htm\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/www.feasta.org\/documents\/review2\/nunan.htm<\/a> ; 32 refs. <br><br> [10] Hazel Henderson, \"Globocop v. Venezuela's Chavez: Oil, <br>  <br> Globalization and Competing Visions of Development\", April <br>  <br> 2002, <a href=\"http:\/\/hazelhenderson.com\/editorials\/globoCop04-02.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/hazelhenderson.com\/editorials\/globoCop04-02.html<\/a> . <br><br> [11] Duncan Campbell et al., \"Bush Administration Behind Failed <br>  <br> Military Coup in Venezuela\", PROJECT CENSORED, #12 for 2002-3, <br>  <br> <a href=\"http:\/\/projectcensored.org\/publications\/2004\/12.html\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/projectcensored.org\/publications\/2004\/12.html<\/a> . <br><br> [12] Gregory Wilpert, \"Venezuela's Central Bank Confirms it <br>  <br> Deposited $20 Billion in Swiss Bank\", Venezuelanalysis.com , <br>  <br> Oct.5, 2005, <a href=\"http:\/\/venezuelanalysis.com\/news.php?newsno=1777\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/venezuelanalysis.com\/news.php?newsno=1777<\/a> . <br><br> ----------------------------------------------------------- <br><br>      Copyright (c) 2005 Prosper Australia <br>  <br>      (<a href=\"http:\/\/prosper.org.au\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/prosper.org.au<\/a> , <a href=\"http:\/\/earthsharing.org.au\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/earthsharing.org.au<\/a>). <br>  <br>      Author: Gavin R. Putland (<a href=\"http:\/\/grputland.com\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/grputland.com<\/a>). <br>  <br>      Permission is given to forward, copy, translate, and <br>  <br>      otherwise publish this work for non-commercial <br>  <br>      purposes provided that the work remains intact and <br>  <br>      includes this copyright notice. <br>  <br> \n","contact":"","link":"","address":"","phone":"","parent_id":0,"mime_type":"text\/plain","summary":"By deliberately confusing assets that can be *produced*\r\nwith assets that can only be *acquired*, modern economics\r\nlaid the ideological foundation for unemployment, poverty,\r\ninequality, and the looming global depression.","numcomment":0,"fileurl":"\/uploads\/","filesize":null,"article_url":"\/news\/2005\/11\/138377.php"},"attachments":[],"comments":[]}