{"article":{"id":97816,"heading":"Global Warming - understanding needed for family planning","author":"Pat Neuman","created":"2003-12-18 20:08:44","modified":"2003-12-18 20:08:44","last_modified":"Fri, 19 Dec 2003 03:08:44","article":"

A. GLOBAL LAND TEMPERATURES (GLT)

From Table 1, below: GLTs have been increasing

since the mid 1970s. The GLT average for the

10 year period from 1993-2002 increased at 12̊F

per century over the previous GLT average for

1983-1992.

TABLE 1: GLOBAL LAND TEMPERATURES(1880-2002)

- - Annual ̊F

1880 46.90

1881 47.02

1882 47.11

1883 46.66

1884 46.41

1885 46.67

1886 46.87

1887 46.81

1888 46.66

1889 47.28

Rate of Change(CH) in GLT (̊F) per century

by 10 year averages from 1890 through 2002

- - Annual 10yrAv(Intervals) 10yrAvCH\/CHx100

1890 47.06 46.85 (1881-1890) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1891 46.78 46.83 (1882-1891) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1892 46.62 46.78 (1883-1892) : \/ .05 \/ - 5

1893 46.43 46.76 (1884-1893) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1894 46.98 46.82 (1885-1894) : \/ .06 \/ + 6

1895 46.81 46.83 (1886-1895) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1896 47.03 46.85 (1887-1896) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1897 47.21 46.89 (1888-1897) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1898 47.01 46.92 (1889-1898) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1899 47.13 46.91 (1890-1899) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1900 47.32 46.93 (1891-1900) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1901 47.31 46.99 (1892-1901) : \/ .06 \/ + 6

1902 46.91 47.01 (1893-1902) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1903 46.81 47.05 (1894-1903) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1904 46.59 47.01 (1895-1904) : \/ .04 \/ - 4

1905 46.88 47.02 (1896-1905) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1906 47.22 47.04 (1897-1906) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1907 46.41 46.96 (1898-1907) : \/ .08 \/ - 8

1908 46.67 46.93 (1899-1908) : \/ .03 \/ - 3

1909 46.77 46.89 (1900-1909) : \/ .04 \/ - 4

1910 46.99 46.86 (1901-1910) : \/ .03 \/ - 3

1911 46.88 46.81 (1902-1911) : \/ .05 \/ - 5

1912 46.77 46.80 (1903-1912) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1913 47.05 46.82 (1904-1913) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1914 47.49 46.91 (1905-1914) : \/ .09 \/ + 9

1915 47.49 46.97 (1906-1915) : \/ .06 \/ + 6

1916 46.92 46.94 (1907-1916) : \/ .03 \/ - 3

1917 46.34 46.94 (1908-1917) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1918 46.86 46.96 (1909-1918) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1919 47.05 46.99 (1910-1919) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1920 47.07 46.99 (1911-1920) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1921 47.50 47.05 (1912-1921) : \/ .06 \/ + 6

1922 47.16 47.09 (1913-1922) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1923 47.15 47.10 (1914-1923) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1924 47.06 47.06 (1915-1924) : \/ .04 \/ - 4

1925 47.29 47.04 (1916-1925) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1926 47.53 47.10 (1917-1926) : \/ .06 \/ + 6

1927 47.26 47.19 (1918-1927) : \/ .09 \/ + 9

1928 47.38 47.24 (1919-1928) : \/ .05 \/ + 5

1929 46.86 47.22 (1920-1929) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1930 47.50 47.27 (1921-1930) : \/ .05 \/ + 5

1931 47.57 47.27 (1922-1931) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1932 47.48 47.31 (1923-1932) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1933 47.07 47.30 (1924-1933) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1934 47.60 47.35 (1925-1934) : \/ .05 \/ + 5

1935 47.31 47.35 (1926-1935) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1936 47.39 47.34 (1927-1936) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1937 47.59 47.37 (1928-1937) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1938 47.87 47.42 (1929-1938) : \/ .05 \/ + 5

1939 47.64 47.50 (1930-1939) : \/ .08 \/ + 8

1940 47.52 47.50 (1931-1940) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1941 47.56 47.50 (1932-1941) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1942 47.49 47.50 (1933-1942) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1943 47.54 47.55 (1934-1943) : \/ .05 \/ + 5

1944 47.69 47.56 (1935-1944) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1945 47.32 47.56 (1936-1945) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1946 47.48 47.57 (1937-1946) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1947 47.56 47.57 (1938-1947) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1948 47.56 47.54 (1939-1948) : \/ .03 \/ - 3

1949 47.40 47.51 (1940-1949) : \/ .03 \/ - 3

1950 47.04 47.46 (1941-1950) : \/ .05 \/ - 5

1951 47.39 47.45 (1942-1951) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1952 47.44 47.44 (1943-1952) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1953 47.75 47.46 (1944-1953) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1954 47.22 47.42 (1945-1954) : \/ .04 \/ - 4

1955 47.22 47.41 (1946-1955) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1956 46.69 47.33 (1947-1956) : \/ .08 \/ - 8

1957 47.41 47.31 (1948-1957) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1958 47.68 47.32 (1949-1958) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1959 47.51 47.34 (1950-1959) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1960 47.37 47.37 (1951-1960) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1961 47.58 47.39 (1952-1961) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1962 47.55 47.40 (1953-1962) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1963 47.56 47.38 (1954-1963) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1964 46.97 47.35 (1955-1964) : \/ .03 \/ - 3

1965 47.11 47.34 (1956-1965) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

1966 47.32 47.41 (1957-1966) : \/ .07 \/ + 7

1967 47.28 47.39 (1958-1967) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1968 47.11 47.34 (1959-1968) : \/ .05 \/ - 5

1969 47.31 47.32 (1960-1969) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1970 47.41 47.32 (1961-1970) : \/ .00 \/ . 0

1971 47.15 47.28 (1962-1971) : \/ .04 \/ - 4

1972 47.08 47.23 (1963-1972) : \/ .05 \/ - 5

1973 47.79 47.25 (1964-1973) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1974 47.02 47.26 (1965-1974) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1975 47.41 47.29 (1966-1975) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1976 46.84 47.24 (1967-1976) : \/ .05 \/ - 5

1977 47.71 47.28 (1968-1977) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1978 47.43 47.32 (1969-1978) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1979 47.66 47.35 (1970-1979) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1980 47.75 47.38 (1971-1980) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1981 48.13 47.48 (1972-1981) : \/ .10 \/ +10

1982 47.53 47.53 (1973-1982) : \/ .05 \/ + 5

1983 48.15 47.56 (1974-1983) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1984 47.43 47.60 (1975-1984) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1985 47.49 47.61 (1976-1985) : \/ .01 \/ + 1

1986 47.77 47.70 (1977-1986) : \/ .11 \/ +11

1987 48.09 47.74 (1978-1987) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1988 48.24 47.82 (1979-1988) : \/ .08 \/ + 8

1989 48.03 47.86 (1980-1989) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1990 48.54 47.94 (1981-1990) : \/ .08 \/ + 8

1991 48.29 47.96 (1982-1991) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1992 47.82 47.98 (1983-1992) : \/ .02 \/ + 2

1993 47.91 47.96 (1984-1993) : \/ .02 \/ - 2

1994 48.35 48.05 (1985-1994) : \/ .09 \/ + 9

1995 48.61 48.16 (1986-1995) : \/ .11 \/ +11

1996 48.03 48.19 (1987-1996) : \/ .03 \/ + 3

1997 48.51 48.23 (1988-1997) : \/ .04 \/ + 4

1998 49.15 48.32 (1989-1998) : \/ .09 \/ + 9

1999 48.69 48.39 (1990-1999) : \/ .07 \/ + 7

2000 48.44 48.38 (1991-2000) : \/ .01 \/ - 1

2001 48.82 48.43 (1992-2001) : \/ .05 \/ + 5

2002 49.03 48.55 (1993-2002) : \/ .12 \/ +12

2003 not available

- - -



B. EARLIER SNOWMELT RUNOFF: MIDWEST & GREAT PLAINS

Annual spring snowmelt runoff from 1980-2003 occurred

3-4 weeks earlier than average for the period 1900

through spring, 1979. [Article presented at 28th

Annual NOAA National Weather Service(NWS)

Climate Prediction Center(CPC) & Desert Research

Institute Workshop in Reno, Nevada, 22 Oct. 2003.

The poster presentation can be viewed from:

http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/ClimateArchive\/<\/a>

The article and figures can be accessed through:

http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/ClimateArchive\/message\/264<\/a>

Presently there are four figures shown on the

article web site, showing the timing of snowmelt

runoff from 1900 to current, and average dewpoints

from 1948 to current for January through April.

Three figures that were presented at the NOAA NWS CPC

October 2003 Workshop can be viewed from by selecting

'Full Size' image, after selecting 'Photos' from the

left side of the ClimateArchive website.

(http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/ClimateArchive\/<\/a>)

The three figures show annual average temperatures

from 1898 through 2002 for NWS climate stations at

Jamestown ND, Leech Lake Dam MN, and Spooner

Experimental Farm WI. These areas have had declining

populations in recent decades, therefore any urban heat

island effects on temperature measurements would have

been minimal or nonexistent. These 105 year plots of

annual mean temperatures show obvious warming trends,

especially from the early 1980s, increasing to current.

Although a non member can view the climateArchive

messages & homepage image in regular size, the Full

Size images in the 'photo albums' can only be viewed

by members only. However, there is open membership to

this group thus anyone that Submits for membership

will be approved almost instantaneously.



C. CARBON DIOXIDE IN THE ATMOSPHERE

Air bubbles trapped in ice from Antarctica

and Greenland have been analyzed to reconstruct

the atmospheric composition at the time when

the ice formed. Measurements of the amount of

greenhouse gases in these bubbles show that the

\"pre-industrial\" amount of carbon dioxide (CO2)

in the atmosphere was about 280 parts per

million (ppm), almost 100 ppm below todays

value. The figure below show results of CO2

measurements of air trapped in ice cores taken

at the Law Dome site in Antarctica, along with

present day measurements at the CMDL Mauna Loa

Observatory in Hawaii. CO2 amounts have

increased about 35% in the last 200 years.

Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory

(CMDL, NOAA).

Table 2 shown below was constructed using data

from the CMDL figure from their website at:

http:\/\/www.cmdl.noaa.gov\/ccgg\/faq<\/a> ... based on

Law Dome ice core & Mauna Loa CO2 data.

TABLE 2: CARBON DIOXIDE MEASUREMENTS(1800-2002)

Key:

Amount(AMT) in parts per million(ppm)

Change(CH) in CO2 by 50 yr intervals since 1800

YEAR AMT

1800 280 CH : Percent increase since 1800

1850 285 05 : 2

1900 295 15 : 5

1950 315 35 :12

2000 370 90 :32

2002 375 95

As shown below, CO2 amounts have increased about

35% in the last 200 years. ... From TABLE 2:

375 ppm divided by 280 ppm = 34%.



INTERACTIVE PROCEDURE TO VIEW CO2 SAMPLED DATA

a) Click: http:\/\/www.cmdl.noaa.gov\/ccgg\/iadv\/<\/a>

b) Map of the world(at right) click a red circle.

c) Left side of page, arrow down & click Submit.

d) The atmospheric plot of CO2 appears.



D. DETECTION OF HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE

... Most of the observed global-scale warming

over the last 50 years is believed to have been

due to the increase in atmospheric greenhouse

gas concentrations. ...

The observed trends over the second half of the

century for all indices are consistent with the

response to anthropogenic forcing in these

models. ...[Detection of a Human Influence on

North American Climate (Karoly, et.al. 2003).

In Science, November 14, 2003].

E. UNDERSTANDING NEEDED TO HELP IN FAMILY PLANNING

Global land temperatures are increasing rapidly.

Fuel, food and water shortages are great concerns.

Understanding global warming is needed to help

in family planning.

For more information and for public discussion,

please join the public discussion group called:

Paleontology_and_Climate, at:

http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/Paleontology_and_Climate\/<\/a>


\t

For poster presentation and ClimateArchive see:

http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/ClimateArchive\/<\/a>



Pat Neuman

Hydrologist

Minnesota

<\/p>\n","contact":"npat1@juno.com","link":"http:\/\/groups.yahoo.com\/group\/Paleontology_and_Climate\/","address":"Minnesota","phone":"","parent_id":0,"mime_type":"text\/plain","summary":"OUTLINE \r\n\r\nA. GLOBAL LAND TEMPERATURES (GLT)\r\n.. TABLE 1: GLOBAL LAND TEMPERATURES(1880-2002)\r\n\r\nB. EARLIER SNOWMELT RUNOFF: MIDWEST & GREAT PLAINS\r\n\r\nC. CARBON DIOXIDE IN THE ATMOSPHERE\r\n.. TABLE 2: CARBON DIOXIDE MEASUREMENTS(1800-2002)\r\n.. INTERACTIVE PROCEDURE TO VIEW CO2 SAMPLED DATA\r\n\r\nD. DETECTION OF HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE\r\n\r\nE. UNDERSTANDING NEEDED TO HELP IN FAMILY PLANNING\r\n","numcomment":0,"fileurl":"\/uploads\/","filesize":null,"article_url":"\/news\/2003\/12\/97816.php"},"attachments":[],"comments":[]}