Palm Beach Ballot\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\nPalm Beach Ballot: Expert Analysis of Visual Attributes\r\n<\/b><\/p>
\r\n\r\n\r\nBy Don Dillman
\r\n Professor of Government and Public Policy
\r\n Washington State University in Pullman, Washington<\/b><\/p>
\r\n\r\nNovember 9, 2000<\/p>
\r\n\r\nStatement by Don A. Dillman on Palm Beach County Florida Ballot
\r\n Originally circulated to AAPORNET*
\r\n Subsequently distributed by Red Rock Eater News Service
\r\n Republished by permission of the author<\/p>
\r\n\r\nSeveral people have asked for my opinion on whether the format of\r\nthe November 7, 2000, general election ballot in Palm Beach County,\r\nFlorida, resulted in more people voting for Buchanan that had intended\r\nto do so. This statement is in response to those requests.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nI cannot say with certainty whether the format of this ballot affected\r\na certain number of people who thus voted by mistake for Pat Buchanan,\r\nwhile intending to vote for another candidate. That would require\r\nknowledge of what specific people did in the voting booth Tuesday,\r\nwhich I don't have. However, based on my experiences and past\r\nresearch concerning how the visual format of questionnaires affects\r\nrespondents to surveys, I believe it is likely that certain visual\r\nfeatures of the ballot resulted in some individuals who wished to vote\r\nfor Gore inadvertently punching the second hole in the column, thus\r\nresulting in a vote for Buchanan. These visual attributes may also\r\nhave resulted in double punches as people attempted to correct their\r\nerror. However, I do not think that voters who intended to vote for\r\nBush were similarly affected.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nI believe this outcome occurred because of the joint effects of several undesirable features of the Palm Beach County ballot, rather than a single attribute. These factors include: <\/p>
\r\n\r\nWhen people open and\/or begin to read material printed in a booklet\r\nformat, they tend to look first at the left-hand page and focus\r\ntheir attention there. Because this is a ballot in which most people\r\nexpect to vote on most or all of the choices, it is also likely that\r\nthey would expect to answer the questions in order. It is therefore\r\nlikely that many voters began reading the left-hand page without\r\nfirst looking at the second page and seeing what material was printed\r\nthere. Thus, they may have been unaware that some of the candidates\r\nfor president were listed on the opposite page.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nMost people who completed the ballot knew who they wanted to vote for\r\nprior to reading the list of names. Thus, rather than attempting to\r\nread all of the answer possibilities before marking their choice, they\r\nsimply looked for the name of the candidate for whom they wished to\r\nvote. The typical procedure would be to start at the top of the list\r\nand read downwards until the preferred candidate was found.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nAfter reading the first candidate's name (Bush) on the left-hand\r\npage, people who wanted to vote for him should have been guided to the\r\nanswer column by the number and an arrow. That circle was also the\r\nfirst (or top) circle in the answer column. It therefore seems quite\r\nunlikely that the voter would by-pass the first circle and mark the\r\nsecond circle, thereby voting for Buchanan, by mistake.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nIn contrast, people who wanted to vote for Gore, and had just seen\r\nBush's name, would be expected to go straight down the page as they\r\nsearched for Gore's name. After finding it, people are likely to\r\nhave moved their fingers and thumb that held the stick-pin punching\r\ndevice to the appropriate punching location. It is likely that\r\nin the process of doing this some people (particularly those who\r\nare right-handed) did not see the number and arrow pointing to the\r\nappropriate answer circle because it was obscured by their hand.\r\nThey may have also concluded that the second hole in the column was\r\nthe correct one to punch, simply because Gore was the second candidate\r\non the page. Thus, both the locational feature (being second) and\r\nmechanics of answering seem likely to have worked together in a way\r\nthat led some people to inadvertently punch the second hole (Buchanan\r\nchoice) rather than the third hole (Gore choice).<\/p>
\r\n\r\nThe possibility that some circles in the column of possible answers\r\napplied to Buchanan (on the next page) is unlikely to have occurred to\r\nsome respondents. It is most unusual for any ballot or questionnaire\r\nto list choices to the first page to the right of the names, while\r\nchoices to the second page are listed to the left of the names, and\r\nin addition to have all of them listed in a single column. Therefore,\r\nI would expect that some respondents had no idea that any of the\r\nchoices in the answer column applied to the next page instead of\r\nto the candidates on page one. This problem was accentuated by the\r\npresidential preference being listed on the first page of the ballot,\r\nbefore the respondent had figured out, through experience, exactly how\r\nthe ballot worked.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nIt does seem likely that some respondents who marked the second circle\r\nwould have noticed that it was not aligned with the Gore box in the\r\nsame way as the first circle was aligned with the Bush box. However,\r\namong those who noticed the different alignment this feature may have\r\nbeen discounted, because of their having to link together physically\r\nseparate components (the actual paper ballot and the booklet listing\r\ncandidate names) and the association of the second circle in the\r\ncolumn with the second candidate (Gore) choice.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nI would also expect that some ballots were double punched (Gore and\r\nBuchanan) as voters started to punch the second circle, realized they\r\nwere making an error, and attempted to recover from it.<\/p>
\r\n\r\nDespite the visual and mechanical problems that individually\r\nand jointly increase the likelihood that Gore preference voters\r\nunintentionally and unknowingly voted for Buchanan, the nature of the\r\nproblem is such that it would not affect most voters. Most people are\r\nable to \"figure-out\" how to answer questions when they are presented\r\nin a visually inappropriate way, as was done in this situation.\r\nHowever, I am also confident that some Gore-preference voters would\r\nhave made the error described above. At the same time, and for the\r\nreasons described above, Bush-preference voters were not likely to\r\nmake the same mistake.<\/p>
\r\n\r\n* AAPORNET: email list for the American Association for Public Opinion Research
\r\n<\/p>
\r\n\r\n Background on\r\nthe theory and research that lead to the interpretations reported\r\nhere are published in Chapter 3 of Dillman, Don A. 2000 Mail and\r\nInternet Surveys: The Tailored Design Method, New York: John Wiley;\r\nand Jenkins, Cleo R. and Don A. Dillman 1997 \"Towards a Theory of\r\nSelf-Administered Questionnaire Design,\" Chapter 7 of Lyberg, Lars, et\r\nal., Survey Measurement and Process Quality, (pp.165-196,) New York:\r\nWiley Interscience.<\/p>
\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<\/p>\n","contact":"e-mail: dillman@wsu.edu","link":"http:\/\/survey.sesrc.wsu.edu\/dillman\/","address":"Social and Economic Sciences Research Center, Washington State University, Pullman, WA 99164-4014","phone":"","parent_id":0,"mime_type":"text\/html","summary":"In sharp contrast to off-the-cuff opinions that have proliferated the last few days, Dr. Dillman offers an informed analysis based on his knowledge of the field of questionnaire design. Originally circulated via a professional email list.","numcomment":0,"fileurl":"\/uploads\/2000\/11\/rre_f5a.htm","filesize":"8.5 kibibytes","article_url":"\/news\/2000\/11\/4512.php"},"attachments":[],"comments":[]}