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金融危机下迎来中国世纪&#

by 来源: 侨报 Tuesday, Oct. 14, 2008 at 4:31 PM

《中国的全球影响》、《中国与世界新秩序》两书的作者顾志斌(George Zhibin Gu)、《悲哀帝国》作者约翰逊(Chalmers Johnson)、《调整十 九世纪》一书的作者弗兰克(André Gunder Frank)分别阐述对世界基本冲突与挑战性问题的见解。

【本报编译颜语10月13日报道】《圣迭哥CMI报》当地时间5日刊登题为《美国主导地位的终结VS中国世纪VS全球金融危机》的文章。

  《中国的全球影响》、《中国与世界新秩序》两书的作者顾志斌(George Zhibin Gu)、《悲哀帝国》作者约翰逊(Chalmers Johnson)、《调整十

九世纪》一书的作者弗兰克(André Gunder Frank)分别阐述对世界基本冲突与挑战性问题的见解。

  顾志斌:新的权力平衡将出现

  顾志斌认为,大多数中国人更关注的是提高生活水平和获得更多的机会,他们很少意识到中国未来会在全球舞台上扮演怎样的角色。很多时候,当外国游客说21世纪将是中国的,他们会感到震惊。

  对中国而言,迅速发展只为扭转历史。200多年前,清朝的夜郎自大使中国遭受列强凌辱,如今,中国不准备在全球舞台上发挥更加重要的作用。现在,大多数中国人认为当第二比第一更安全,是一种更好的选择。做世界第一,会招致不必要的麻烦。

  对于有人提及的“21世纪将是真正的亚洲的世纪”一说,顾志斌表示,亚洲有无数好的传统,亚洲人有很强的家庭观念、情感教育,并能吃苦耐劳。亚洲经济发展取得进步,但21世纪将属于世界,而不仅仅是亚洲或者中国。在这个世纪,分享和共同财富将变得前所未有的重要。更多的国家将从亚洲经济的发展中受益。

  顾志斌表示,中国和印度肯定会影响到全球的平衡,但它的影响可能是逐步和间接的,因为印度和中国占世界人口的40%,如果未来10年他们的收入增加一倍,其他国家都能感觉到。美国将变得更愿意与印度、中国和世界其他地方进行协商和对话。即使美国不愿意更加开放,也将更加意识到他国的存在。总之,新的权力平衡将逐渐出现,并极有可能是间接的。更重要的,它可能不会重复过去的血腥争斗。

  约翰逊:美国重蹈前苏联覆辙

  约翰逊认为,今天的美国是对前苏联1991年解体的重蹈覆辙。有三个主要原因导致苏联解体,这些都是抨击美国的原因。

  极端僵化的经济体制过度受控于马克思列宁主义或资本主义的意识形态。如今美国的特点是资本主义强盗大亨和极端右翼政客之间的联合,就像所谓的“镀金时代”的1890至1914年。政府与工商界关系的腐败根深蒂固且制度化。

  其二在于帝国的过分扩张。美国如今在132个国家有超过700个军事基地,并且为此负载累累。最关键的是,它在伊拉克和阿富汗的军事冒险简直是致命的。

  其三在于不能进行改革。如前苏联的戈尔巴乔夫试图通过“改革”和“开放”改革制度,但失败了。美国甚至没有试图改革。

  弗兰克:正见证亚洲重新崛起

  弗兰克认为,当代世界体系有着悠久的历史,欧洲和西方上升到主导地位也是从近代开始的。中亚地区直到至少1800年仍然是一个重要的经济十字路口。世界历史表明,亚洲在1400到1800年之前或之中都一直处于世界领先地位。即使直到1860年第二次鸦片战争,中国都没有真正“下降”。目前的中国正在重新崛起,恢复在19世纪中叶前的力量平衡。

  值得注意的是,亚洲,特别是中国,很可能回归其在世界经济中的主导地位和作用,正如他们至少到1800年前已经做到的那样。

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